PDH(SH:600048) Changjiang Securities·2025-10-27 14:41Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [12]. Core Views - The company's earnings are under short-term cyclical pressure, but as a leading state-owned enterprise, there is still room for valuation recovery. The cyclical pressure is reflected in the settlement end, with Q3 performance falling short of expectations. However, considering the ample unrecognized resources, the gradual recognition of high-profit land reserves, and the diminishing impact of asset impairment, future performance is expected to maintain a certain scale. The company remains the industry leader in sales, actively expanding investments, and continuously optimizing land reserve quality through adjustments [2][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 173.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.9 billion yuan, down 75.3% [6][12]. - The completion area decreased by 12.1% year-on-year, which pressured revenue. The comprehensive gross margin for Q3 was 10.8%, a decline of 4.8 percentage points, marking a new low in recent years [12]. Sales and Investment - Despite industry downturns, the company achieved sales of 201.7 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a decrease of 16.5%, with a sales area of 10.1 million square meters, down 25.1%. The average price per square meter increased by 11.5% to 20,000 yuan [12]. - The company actively expanded its investment, with land acquisition amounting to 60.3 billion yuan, an increase of 45.3%, and the area acquired was 2.9 million square meters, up 30.1% [12]. Business Diversification - The company reported operational income of 2.54 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, an increase of 13%. The property management segment showed stable performance, with a net profit of 890 million yuan, up 5.3% [12]. - The successful issuance of 8.5 billion yuan in convertible bonds at a low interest rate of 2.20% reflects investor recognition of the company's value [12]. Future Outlook - Although the projected delivery volume for 2025 is expected to decline, the rising average sales price is anticipated to support revenue. The company is expected to maintain a certain scale of performance despite cyclical pressures [12]. - The estimated net profits for 2025-2027 are projected to be 1.7 billion, 2.2 billion, and 2.7 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 53, 42, and 34 times [12].