Jiayou International(SH:603871) SINOLINK SECURITIES·2025-10-27 14:36Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company's revenue for Q1-Q3 2025 reached 6.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.4%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 870 million yuan, down 19.7% year-on-year. In Q3 2025, revenue was 2.49 billion yuan, up 30.6% year-on-year, but net profit decreased by 4.9% to 313 million yuan [2][3] Performance Analysis - The increase in revenue in Q3 2025 was primarily driven by business growth, with significant contributions from the Mongolian market, where the average price of main coking coal rose by 15.2% quarter-on-quarter and 37.5% compared to the end of Q2. The African market also saw steady growth in traffic and cargo volume, while the company expanded its logistics network in Central Asia [3] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 16.6%, a decrease of 6.7 percentage points year-on-year. The period expense ratio decreased by 1.71 percentage points to 1.9%, with a net profit margin of 12.6%, down 4.7 percentage points year-on-year. Operating cash flow for Q1-Q3 2025 increased by 50.6% year-on-year due to reduced procurement of main coking coal [4] - The supply-side disruptions and rising coking coal prices are expected to benefit the company's Q4 performance, with prices reaching a peak of 1490 yuan per ton in mid-October [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised down to 1.15 billion yuan, 1.55 billion yuan, and 1.93 billion yuan, respectively, from previous estimates of 1.29 billion yuan, 1.60 billion yuan, and 1.91 billion yuan [5]