GDPD(SH:600795) Xinda Securities·2025-10-28 01:41Investment Rating - The investment rating for Guodian Power (600795.SH) is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that Guodian Power achieved excellent quarterly performance due to cost control measures and the "Peak Summer" initiative, with potential asset injections from Sichuan's hydropower and thermal power sectors expected [1][6] - The company reported a revenue of 125.205 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 6.47%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 6.777 billion yuan, down 26.27% year-on-year, but the net profit after deducting non-recurring items increased by 37.99% year-on-year [1][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2025, Guodian Power's operating revenue was 125.205 billion yuan, down 6.47% year-on-year, with a net profit of 6.777 billion yuan, down 26.27% year-on-year. However, the net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 6.424 billion yuan, up 37.99% year-on-year. The net cash flow from operating activities was 42.783 billion yuan, up 15.47% year-on-year [1][3] - In Q3 alone, the company achieved an operating revenue of 47.551 billion yuan, down 1.01% year-on-year but up 25.66% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 3.090 billion yuan, up 24.87% year-on-year and 64.72% quarter-on-quarter [1][3] Power Generation Business - The report indicates that the "Peak Summer" initiative has significantly improved the power generation capacity of thermal power, while the growth rate of renewable energy generation has slowed down. For Q1-Q3 2025, the total power generation was 3,321.34 billion kWh, up 0.74% year-on-year, with thermal power generation at 2,549.31 billion kWh, down 2.17% year-on-year [3][6] - The average on-grid electricity price for Q1-Q3 2025 was 396.02 yuan/MWh, down 7.51% year-on-year, while in Q3, it was 376.36 yuan/MWh, down 8.31% year-on-year and 4.70% quarter-on-quarter [3][6] Cost Control and Operational Efficiency - The company has effectively managed costs despite downward pressure on electricity prices, achieving a reduction in operating costs by 3.66% year-on-year in Q3. Sales expenses decreased by 38.96%, management expenses by 30.34%, and financial expenses by 1.68% year-on-year [3][6] - The "coal-electricity integration" business model has provided the company with strong procurement flexibility, allowing it to control fuel costs and maintain stable performance [3][6] Future Prospects - The report anticipates potential asset injections from the merger of the Dadu River Company with Sichuan and Jinsha River companies, which could significantly enhance the company's hydropower assets [6] - Guodian Power has announced a cash dividend plan for 2025-2027, committing to distribute at least 60% of net profit attributable to shareholders, which is expected to enhance the company's value [6] Earnings Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is adjusted to 7.668 billion yuan, 8.138 billion yuan, and 8.667 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12.35, 11.64, and 10.93 [6]