Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-10-28 02:55Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report Although in the medium - to - long - term, central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up the price of precious metals, in the short term, they are in an adjustment phase. Investors should look for mid - term opportunities to buy on dips and hold existing long positions cautiously. The resistance levels for London gold are 4000 and 4150, and the support is lowered to the 3800 - 3850 area. For silver, the resistance levels are 48 and 50 - 50.5, and the support is 46 [5]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Market Review On Monday, precious metal prices declined as the easing of global trade tensions boosted market risk appetite. The US dollar index fluctuated, the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell, and European and American stock indexes, Bitcoin, the South China Non - ferrous Metals Index, and crude oil showed various trends. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3997 per ounce, down 3.4%; US silver 2512 contract closed at $46.83 per ounce, down 3.61%. SHFE gold 2512 main contract closed at 934.14 yuan per gram, down 1.24%; SHFE silver 2512 contract closed at 11394 yuan per kilogram, down 0.47% [2]. 3.2 Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings Interest rate cut expectations were generally stable. According to CME "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in October was 2.7%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut was 97.3%. For December, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut was 4.6%, a 50 - basis - point cut was 95.3%, and a 75 - basis - point cut was 0%. For January, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut was 2.3%, a 50 - basis - point cut was 48.1%, and a 75 - basis - point cut was 49.6%. SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 8.01 tons to 1038.94 tons, and iShares Silver ETF holdings decreased by 79.02 tons to 15340.79 tons. SHFE silver inventory decreased by 17.3 tons to 647.6 tons, and SGX silver inventory decreased by 145.4 tons to 905.2 tons in the week ending October 17 [3]. 3.3 This Week's Focus In terms of data, focus on the preliminary value of the US Q3 GDP on Thursday and the US September PCE data on Friday. For events, pay attention to the Fed FOMC's interest rate decision at 02:00 on Thursday, Fed Chairman Powell's press conference at 02:30, and the European Central Bank's interest rate decision at 21:15 on Thursday. Also, focus on the APEC Leaders' Summit in South Korea, US President Trump's visits to Japan (until October 29) and South Korea [4]. 3.4 Price and Inventory Data - Precious Metal Futures and Spot Prices: SHFE gold main contract was at 934.14 yuan per gram, down 0.42%; SGX gold TD was at 930.29 yuan per gram, down 0.54%; CME gold main contract was at $3997 per ounce, down 3.15%. SHFE silver main contract was at 11394 yuan per kilogram, up 0.55%; SGX silver TD was at 11345 yuan per kilogram, up 0.25%; CME silver main contract was at $46.83 per ounce, down 3.26% [6][7]. - Inventory and Position Data: SHFE gold inventory was 87015 kilograms (unchanged), CME gold inventory was 1203.3159 tons, down 0.49%; SHFE gold position was 180815 lots, down 2.69%; SPDR gold position was 1038.92 tons, down 0.77%. SHFE silver inventory was 647.643 tons, down 2.61%; CME silver inventory was 15320.2554 tons, down 0.88%; SGX silver inventory was 905.235 tons, down 13.84%; SHFE silver position was 341694 lots, down 6.63%; SLV silver position was 15340.794278 tons, down 0.51% [12]. 3.5 Other Market Data The US dollar index was at 98.8157, down 0.12%; the US dollar against the Chinese yuan was at 7.1091, down 0.16%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average was at 47544.59 points, up 0.71%; WTI crude oil spot was at $61.31 per barrel, down 0.31%; LmeS copper 03 was at $11000.5 per ton, up 0.49%; the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.01%, down 0.25%; the 10 - year US real interest rate was 1.73% (unchanged); the 10 - 2 - year US Treasury yield spread was 0.53%, down 1.85% [17].