东方雨虹（002271）：25Q3收入拐点或显现

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 17.19 [1][5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 70.32 billion in Q3 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 8.51% but a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 7.65%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 2.45 billion, down 26.58% year-over-year and 34.09% quarter-over-quarter, slightly below previous expectations due to slow recovery in gross margin and early impairment provisions [1]. - The cumulative revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was RMB 206.01 billion, a decrease of 5.06% year-over-year, with a net profit of RMB 8.10 billion, down 36.61% year-over-year [1]. Revenue and Profitability - The comprehensive gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 25.19%, down 3.94 percentage points year-over-year. The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 24.8%, reflecting a decline of 4.12 percentage points year-over-year and 1.91 percentage points quarter-over-quarter. This decline is attributed to slow product price recovery and the settlement of lower-margin construction income [2]. - The company managed to control its expense ratio, which was 16.61% for the first nine months of 2025, down 1.96 percentage points year-over-year. The absolute value of expenses was RMB 34.21 billion, a decrease of 15.08% year-over-year [3]. Asset Management and Financial Health - The company actively promoted asset revitalization, obtaining RMB 2 billion in debt assets during Q3, with a net accounts receivable of RMB 86.86 billion, down 18.6% year-over-year. The debt-to-asset ratio stood at 50.22%, up 6.08 percentage points year-over-year, indicating a healthy financial position [4]. - The net cash flow from operating activities for the first three quarters of 2025 was RMB 4.16 billion, an increase of 184.56% year-over-year, primarily due to improved cash collection [3]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company's net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised downwards by 27.33%, 15.69%, and 6.15% to RMB 9.58 billion, RMB 16.42 billion, and RMB 22.92 billion, respectively. The corresponding EPS is projected to be RMB 0.40, RMB 0.69, and RMB 0.96 [5][15]. - The company is assigned a 25x PE valuation for 2026, leading to an upward adjustment of the target price to RMB 17.19, reflecting a potential for revenue growth despite pricing pressures [5].