XUEDA(SZ:000526) HTSC·2025-10-28 05:08Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][12]. Core Insights - The company reported Q3 revenue of 697 million RMB, a year-over-year increase of 11.19%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.43 million RMB, down 89.90% year-over-year [1][4]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 2.613 billion RMB, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 16.30%, and a net profit of 231 million RMB, up 31.52% year-over-year [1][4]. - The report indicates that the Q3 performance aligns with industry characteristics, and the company expects to maintain a net profit forecast of 258 million RMB for the full year of 2025 [1][4]. Revenue Trends - In Q3 2025, the company experienced a continued slowdown in revenue growth, with a total revenue of 697 million RMB, primarily due to intensified competition during the summer enrollment period [2]. - Cash collections in Q3 reached 1.3 billion RMB, representing a year-over-year increase of 19.8% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 4.8%, indicating a positive trend for achieving double-digit revenue growth for the year [2]. Profitability Analysis - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 33.86%, down 1.12 percentage points year-over-year, while the gross margin for Q3 was 27.17%, down 5.07 percentage points year-over-year [3]. - The increase in sales expense ratio to 10% in Q3 (up 3.1 percentage points year-over-year) reflects the negative impact of new teaching point openings on profitability [3]. - Despite the challenges, the company managed to reduce management and R&D expense ratios in Q3, which helped mitigate the short-term impact of expansion on profitability [3]. Full-Year Forecast and Valuation - The report maintains the net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 at 258 million RMB, 323 million RMB, and 397 million RMB, respectively, with a compound annual growth rate of 30.24% [5][12]. - The target price is set at 73.36 RMB, based on a 30x adjusted PE ratio for 2025 [5][12].