Songcheng Performance(SZ:300144) HTSC·2025-10-28 05:42Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company reported Q3 revenue of 753 million RMB, a year-over-year decrease of 9.94% but a quarter-over-quarter increase of 45.19%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 354 million RMB, down 22.60% year-over-year but up 130.88% quarter-over-quarter [1][6] - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 1.833 billion RMB, a decrease of 8.98% year-over-year, with a net profit of 754 million RMB, down 25.22% year-over-year [1][6] - The decline in Q3 revenue was primarily due to a decrease in performance and an increase in sales expense ratio. However, the performance during the National Day holiday showed a slight recovery, which is expected to positively impact Q4 [1][2] Summary by Sections Q3 Performance - The company experienced differentiated performance across its existing projects, with total performances for the "Eternal Love" series reaching 3,471 shows in Q3, a decrease of 11% year-over-year. Notably, performances in Hangzhou, Shanghai, and Guilin increased by 2%, 18%, and 10% respectively [2][3] - The company reported a total of 510 shows during the National Day holiday, receiving nearly 3 million visitors, setting a new record [2] Marketing and Sales - The company has increased its marketing efforts, leading to a rise in the sales expense ratio to 8.2%, an increase of 2.8 percentage points year-over-year. Various projects have launched promotional activities to attract visitors [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 down by 16.1%, 13.1%, and 13.8% to 903 million RMB, 1.075 billion RMB, and 1.185 billion RMB respectively. The corresponding EPS is projected to be 0.34, 0.41, and 0.45 RMB [4] - The target price has been adjusted to 9.84 RMB, down from 10.25 RMB, reflecting a 25x PE for 2025 [4][6]