Jiayou International(SH:603871) HTSC·2025-10-28 05:42Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 17.78 [1][5]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of RMB 2.486 billion in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 30.61% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 38.96%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 313 million, showing a year-on-year decrease of 4.90% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.74% [1]. - The recovery in Mongolian coal imports and the rebound in coal prices are expected to positively impact the company's performance, particularly in cross-border logistics and supply chain trade [2][5]. - The company has successfully entered a strategic partnership with the TAZARA railway, enhancing its logistics network in Africa [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of RMB 6.570 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.40%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 874 million, down 19.72% year-on-year [1]. - The operating cash flow significantly improved from RMB 42.635 million in Q2 to RMB 1.05 billion in Q3, indicating better cash management and quicker receivables collection [3]. Market Dynamics - The price of Mongolian coal has rebounded significantly, with prices for Mongolian 5 raw coal and 5 refined coal increasing by over 40% since June [2]. - The demand for Mongolian coal has shown a notable recovery, with imports increasing by 22.5% year-on-year in Q3 [2]. Strategic Developments - The company has made a strategic investment in the TAZARA railway, which is expected to enhance the efficiency of mineral transportation in Southeast Africa and support local economic development [4]. - The integration of cross-border infrastructure investments with multi-modal transport services is a key strategic focus for the company [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised upwards by 10%, 5%, and 6% respectively, reflecting the positive outlook on Mongolian coal demand and price recovery [5]. - The company is assigned a PE ratio of 21.7x for 2025, which is a premium compared to the industry average of 18.1x, attributed to its strategic positioning in key logistics hubs along the Belt and Road Initiative [5].