学大教育(000526):2025 年三季报点评:合同负债快速增长,个性化龙头动力十足

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4][7]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 2.613 billion yuan in the first nine months of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.30%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 231 million yuan, up 31.52% year-on-year, with an EPS of 1.95 yuan, reflecting a growth of 30.53% [1]. - The company is a leader in personalized education, with over 300 learning centers across more than 100 cities and more than 5,200 dedicated teachers, utilizing a hybrid online and offline teaching model [1]. - The company's profitability has significantly improved, with a net profit margin of 8.67%, an increase of 0.97 percentage points year-on-year, while the gross margin was 33.86%, a slight decrease of 1.12 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The company has successfully reduced its debt ratio, with a total asset-liability ratio of 77.09%, down 2.35 percentage points year-on-year. The cash flow remains relatively strong, with a cash collection ratio of 112.24% [3]. - The company has increased its market expansion efforts, with sales expenses rising by 37.5% year-on-year, leading to a record high in contract liabilities of 1.204 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.48% [4]. Financial Forecasts - The projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 3.223 billion yuan, 3.717 billion yuan, and 4.088 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.02 yuan, 2.50 yuan, and 2.89 yuan [6]. - The dynamic PE ratios for the same period are expected to be 22 times, 18 times, and 15 times, indicating a favorable valuation trend [4][6].