新集能源（601918）：电力业务发力，三季度业绩环比大幅改善

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" investment rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company has shown significant improvement in its quarterly performance, particularly in its electricity business, with a notable increase in revenue and profit margins [1][6] - The coal production and sales have remained stable, with expectations for substantial growth following the commissioning of new power plants in 2026 [6][7] - The company is positioned well within the integrated coal and electricity sector in Anhui, benefiting from rising electricity demand and stable pricing [6] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported total revenue of 90.10 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.95%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 14.77 billion yuan, down 19.06% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 31.99 billion yuan, a slight year-on-year decline of 0.16% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 10.25% [1] - The average selling price of coal in Q3 was 513 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year decrease of 8.0% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.0% [6] Production and Sales Summary - The company produced 4.74 million tons of commercial coal in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.86% [6] - The electricity generation reached 4.365 billion kWh in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.29% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 43.44% [6] - The company’s coal gross margin was reported at 36.11%, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.12 percentage points but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.35 percentage points [6] Future Projections - The company expects net profits attributable to shareholders for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 20.37 billion yuan, 22.86 billion yuan, and 24.26 billion yuan respectively, with a projected growth rate of -14.9%, +12.2%, and +6.1% [6][7] - The company’s price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for the next three years are projected to be 9.0, 8.0, and 7.6 times [7][10]