HLGF(SH:600346) Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-10-28 07:20Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hengli Petrochemical is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported better-than-expected performance in Q3 2025, with a significant increase in net profit compared to the previous quarter, driven by inventory gains and improved gross margins [6] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to accelerate the exit of small refineries, improving the refining landscape and providing substantial recovery potential for the refining sector [6] - The polyester sector is facing challenges due to oversupply, but industry cooperation is anticipated to lead to a recovery in profitability [6] - The company has concluded large capital expenditures, and with improving cash flow, dividends are expected to increase, currently yielding 3.1% [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is projected at 243.57 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.0% [5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 8.04 billion in 2025, reflecting a 14.2% increase year-on-year [5] - Earnings per share are expected to be 1.14 yuan in 2025, with a projected PE ratio of 15 [5] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was reported at 16.36%, an increase of 8.58 percentage points year-on-year [6] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 11.5% in 2025 to 14.7% by 2027 [5] Company Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 157.38 billion, down 11.46% year-on-year, but net profit was 5.02 billion, only down 1.61% year-on-year [6] - In Q3 2025, the company’s revenue was 53.50 billion, a decrease of 17.98% year-on-year but an increase of 14.15% quarter-on-quarter [6] - The refining margin for Q3 2025 was estimated at 1,575 yuan/ton, up 219 yuan/ton from the previous quarter [6]