新澳股份（603889）：澳毛涨价大周期，低位充分备料奠定巨大业绩弹性

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xin'ao Co., Ltd. (603889) [7][6][8] Core Views - The report highlights that the price of Australian wool has surged, creating a significant performance elasticity for Xin'ao Co., Ltd. The company is well-positioned to benefit from this price increase due to its proactive inventory strategy during low price periods [7][6][8] - The report anticipates that the company's revenue and profit will see growth in the upcoming quarters, driven by favorable market conditions and strong order backlog [7][6][8] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is projected at 5,088 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.1% [6] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 460 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.3% [6] - The gross margin is forecasted to be 19.7% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 12.6% [6] - The company reported a total revenue of 3,894 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.6% [7] - The net profit for the same period was 377 million yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 2.0% [7] Market and Competitive Landscape - The report indicates that the supply of Australian wool is expected to decrease significantly, with a forecasted decline in sheep numbers and wool production, which will likely support higher prices [7][6] - Demand for wool is also anticipated to improve, particularly in the blended yarn market, as downstream brands and garment factories begin to replenish inventory [7][6] - Xin'ao Co., Ltd. is positioned to capitalize on the current market dynamics, with a robust production capacity established in Vietnam and Ningxia, China, enhancing its competitive advantage [7][6]