wanhua(SH:600309) Capital Securities·2025-10-28 07:50Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company reported a year-on-year revenue increase in Q3, demonstrating strong operational resilience despite short-term fluctuations [4][6] - The company has completed multiple new projects, including a significant ethylene facility, which supports future growth [6] - The overall performance is impacted by declining product prices due to weak downstream demand, despite increased production volumes [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1,442.26 billion yuan, down 2.29% year-on-year, and a net profit of 91.57 billion yuan, down 17.45% year-on-year [6] - In Q3 2025, the company recorded a revenue of 533.24 billion yuan, up 5.52% year-on-year, and a net profit of 30.35 billion yuan, up 3.96% year-on-year [6] - The company’s gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 13.44%, a decrease of 1.94 percentage points year-on-year [6] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue forecasts for 2024 to 2027 are 1,820.69 billion yuan, 1,988.63 billion yuan, 2,143.50 billion yuan, and 2,341.99 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 0.4%, 9.2%, 7.8%, and 9.3% [5] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 130.33 billion yuan, 135.19 billion yuan, 162.45 billion yuan, and 207.23 billion yuan, with growth rates of -22.5%, 3.7%, 20.2%, and 27.6% [5] Market Position and Product Performance - The company’s polyurethane segment saw sales volumes of 454 and 458 million tons, up 7.84% and 11.71% year-on-year, respectively [6] - The petrochemical segment's sales volumes were 478 and 460 million tons, up 17.44% and 13.02% year-on-year, respectively [6] - The average prices for major products in the polyurethane, petrochemical, and fine chemicals segments decreased by 9.00%, 15.32%, and 8.12% year-on-year, respectively [6] Investment Recommendation - The company is expected to maintain strong operational resilience despite being in a cyclical industry, with projected earnings per share (EPS) of 4.31 yuan, 5.17 yuan, and 6.60 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [5][6]