XUEDA(SZ:000526) Guoxin Securities·2025-10-28 08:03Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][21]. Core Views - The company has shown a significant increase in net profit, achieving 231 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year growth of 31.5%. Revenue for the same period reached 2.613 billion yuan, up 16.3% [1][8]. - The company is focusing on personalized tutoring, particularly in high school education, which is expected to benefit from the expansion of regular high school enrollment and a demographic dividend over the next 7-9 years [3][21]. - Despite short-term profit pressure due to increased upfront costs, the recovery in cash collection and contract liabilities indicates effective market investment [2][15]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a net profit of 231 million yuan, with a revenue of 2.613 billion yuan. The net profit margin for Q3 was 0.2%, down 2.3 percentage points year-on-year, while the gross margin was 27.2%, down 5 percentage points [1][12]. - The company’s contract liabilities reached 1.204 billion yuan by the end of Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 22.5%, indicating a recovery in growth rates [15][17]. - The company initiated a share repurchase plan in January 2025, aiming to buy back shares at a maximum price of 66.8 yuan per share, demonstrating management's confidence in future growth [3][21]. Earnings Forecast and Financial Metrics - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 251 million yuan, 301 million yuan, and 363 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.04, 2.44, and 2.95 yuan [4][22]. - The company’s revenue is expected to grow from 3.409 billion yuan in 2025 to 4.953 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 22.4% [4][22]. - The PE ratio is projected to decrease from 21.7 in 2025 to 15.0 in 2027, indicating an improving valuation over time [4][22].