Wintrue Holding(SZ:002539) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-10-28 08:48Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [8] Core Views - The company's performance in Q3 was negatively impacted by weak autumn fertilizer demand, leading to a decline in sales and profits. However, new production capacities are expected to support future growth [4][5] - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 15.87 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 675 million yuan, up 0.86% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, revenue was 4.469 billion yuan, down 4.73% year-on-year and 21.43% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 164 million yuan, down 23.88% year-on-year and 36.22% quarter-on-quarter [4][5] - The company is adjusting its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 908 million yuan, 1.302 billion yuan, and 1.621 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.75, 1.08, and 1.34 yuan. The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 13.5, 9.4, and 7.6 times for the respective years [4][5] Financial Summary - The company achieved a revenue of 21.767 billion yuan in 2023, with a projected revenue of 21.893 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.4%. The net profit for 2023 was 892 million yuan, with an expected increase to 908 million yuan in 2025, representing a growth of 12.9% [7][10] - The gross margin is projected to improve from 10.2% in 2023 to 11.1% in 2025, while the net margin is expected to rise from 4.1% to 4.1% in the same period [11][10] - The company's return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to increase from 10.5% in 2023 to 9.4% in 2025, indicating a gradual improvement in profitability [11][10] Production Capacity and Cost Structure - The company is set to launch a 700,000 tons/year ammonia production capacity by the end of 2025, which is expected to lower production costs for compound fertilizers and other products [5] - The ongoing construction of the Ajuoluo phosphate mine, with a planned capacity of 2.9 million tons, is expected to enhance the company's upstream resource capabilities and reduce costs [5]