Sanmei(SH:603379) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-10-28 08:44Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company has achieved significant profit growth in Q3, with a year-on-year increase of 236.57% in net profit and a revenue increase of 60.29% [5] - The recovery trend in refrigerant prices is expected to continue, providing both certainty and upward potential for the company's performance [6] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts upward, expecting net profits of 2.36 billion, 3.37 billion, and 3.93 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 4.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 45.72%, and a net profit of 1.83 billion yuan, up 183.66% [5] - The gross margin reached 50.73%, an increase of 22.45 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin improved by 17.27 percentage points [5] - In Q3 alone, the company achieved revenue of 1.60 billion yuan and a net profit of 596 million yuan, with a gross margin of 52.90% [5] Sales and Pricing Trends - The sales volume for fluorinated refrigerants, fluorinated foaming agents, and hydrogen fluoride in the first three quarters of 2025 were 95,400 tons, 6,500 tons, and 50,100 tons respectively, with revenue contributions of 380 million, 15.6 million, and 41.8 million yuan [6] - The average price for fluorinated refrigerants was 39,830 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 56.5% [6] - The average price for fluorinated refrigerants in Q3 was 41,297 yuan per ton, up 55.6% year-on-year and 2.4% quarter-on-quarter [6] Valuation Metrics - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 14.5 for 2025, with projected ratios of 10.2 and 8.7 for 2026 and 2027 respectively [8] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 3.87 yuan, 5.51 yuan, and 6.44 yuan respectively [5][8] - The company’s gross margin is expected to reach 52.0% in 2025, increasing to 60.3% in 2026 and 62.8% in 2027 [8]