百润股份（002568）：收入边际向好，威士忌业务未来可期

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company's revenue margins are improving, and the future of its whiskey business looks promising. The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are estimated at 734 million, 867 million, and 1.041 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 2%, 18.14%, and 20.18% respectively. The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 39, 33, and 27 times for the same years [5] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 2.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.89%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 549 million yuan, down 4.35% year-on-year. In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 781 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.99%, marking the first quarter of positive year-on-year revenue growth since Q1 2024 [7] - The gross margin for Q3 was 70.19%, with a slight increase compared to the same period last year. However, the sales expense ratio increased by 3.24 percentage points to 26.7%, attributed to marketing investments for new products and the whiskey business [7] - The company has a clear dual-brand strategy for its whiskey business, with a cumulative barrel count of 500,000, establishing a strong production capacity barrier. The whiskey business is still in the early stages of market cultivation and expansion [7] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The projected operating revenue for 2025 is 3.156 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.53%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 734 million yuan, with a growth rate of 2% [6] - The company’s P/E ratios for the forecasted years are 39.00 for 2025, 33.01 for 2026, and 27.47 for 2027 [6]