海兴电力(603556):收入、利润企稳回升,业绩超市场预期

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's revenue and profit have stabilized and rebounded, exceeding market expectations [8] - The company is expected to see a recovery in overseas market demand and new business growth, leading to an upward revision of profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [8] - The company is facing challenges in overseas smart meter demand but is compensating with new business segments such as smart water meters and renewable energy [8] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1.44 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.1%, and a net profit of 340 million yuan, up 30.2% year-on-year [8] - The gross margin for Q3 was 37.7%, down 11.8 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 23.3%, up 0.9 percentage points year-on-year [8] - The company’s total revenue for 2023 is projected to be 4.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 26.91% [1] Revenue and Profit Forecasts - The company’s total revenue is expected to reach 4.83 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 2.43% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 1.003 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a slight increase of 0.11% year-on-year [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 2.06 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13.22 [1] Market and Business Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the transition to the new version of smart meters, which may lead to improved revenue and profitability in the domestic market [8] - The company’s overseas business is anticipated to achieve stable growth in 2026, with a potential return to double-digit growth [8] - The financial expenses for Q3 2025 contributed positively, with a net contribution of approximately 34 million yuan [8]