HXG(SH:603112) Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-10-28 11:15Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [6] Core Insights - The overall performance in Q3 is in line with expectations, with revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reaching 2,983 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 406 million yuan, up 19% year-on-year [6] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 603 million yuan, 708 million yuan, and 812 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting growth rates of 28%, 17%, and 15% [6] - The company has established a solid competitive barrier due to its deep accumulation in precision manufacturing, excellent cost control capabilities, and forward-looking global layout [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is projected at 4,720 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 23.3% [5] - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 22.3% in Q1-3 2025 to 23.4% in 2025E [5] - The return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to be 17.6% in 2025, increasing to 18.6% by 2027 [5] Business Segment Analysis - The compressor parts business is closely tied to the white goods compressor industry, with a slowdown in growth expected due to reduced production rates in the third quarter [6] - The automotive parts business is seeing improvement due to strategic cooperation with Huayu Automotive, with a year-on-year growth in automotive sales of 12.9% [6] - The engineering machinery business is under pressure due to inventory destocking and fluctuating European demand, but the company is actively seeking new clients [6]