Sanmei(SH:603379) Guoxin Securities·2025-10-28 11:25Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][34] Core Views - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 1.591 billion yuan, a significant increase of 183.66% year-on-year. The total revenue for the same period was 4.429 billion yuan, up 45.72% year-on-year, demonstrating strong operational resilience despite the off-season for demand [1][9] - The core driver of the company's substantial profit growth is the strong performance of its refrigerant business, particularly due to the implementation of a quota system for third-generation refrigerants (HFCs) starting in 2024, which has fundamentally changed the supply landscape from excess competition to supply constraints [1][9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.601 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 60.29%, and a net profit of 596 million yuan, up 236.57% year-on-year. The gross margin for Q3 was 52.9%, an increase of 21.8 percentage points year-on-year [1][9] - The average selling price of refrigerants increased significantly, with the average price reaching 39,800 yuan/ton in the first three quarters, a rise of 56.50% year-on-year, despite a slight decline in sales volume [2][19] Market Dynamics - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has issued the quota allocation plan for 2026, which includes a reduction of 3,000 tons for R22 and the complete elimination of R141b production quotas. This indicates a long-term positive outlook for the refrigerant market [3][21] - The company holds a competitive advantage in production quotas for key refrigerants, with market shares of 11.8% for R32, 24.0% for R134a, and 18.4% for R125, ensuring its core beneficiary position during the high demand cycle for refrigerants [2][19] Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively extending its industrial chain into high-value areas such as fluoropolymers and new energy materials while advancing its integration and high-end transformation strategies [4][29] - Key projects include the trial production of lithium hexafluorophosphate in Fujian and the construction of fluoropolymer production facilities in Zhejiang, which are expected to enhance the company's long-term growth potential [4][33] Profit Forecast - The company is expected to maintain strong profit growth, with projected net profits of 2.107 billion yuan, 2.521 billion yuan, and 2.774 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 170.6%, 19.7%, and 10.0% [34][36]