新澳股份（603889）：三季度羊绒带动收入增长，毛精纺有望在四季度释放业绩

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][3] Core Views - The company has shown steady revenue growth in the third quarter, driven by cashmere sales, with expectations for performance release in the fourth quarter due to improved margins from wool price increases [1][3] - The company has a significant inventory of low-cost raw materials, which positions it well to benefit from rising wool prices, with a 28% increase noted since June [2][3] - The cashmere yarn segment has experienced double-digit revenue growth, while the wool spinning segment is expected to see a recovery in both volume and pricing in the fourth quarter [2][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 3.894 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.60%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 377 million yuan, up 1.98% year-on-year [1] - The operating cash flow for the period was 244 million yuan, a decrease of 8.32% year-on-year [1] - In the third quarter alone, the company reported a revenue of 1.34 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.90%, and a net profit of 107 million yuan, up 2.76% year-on-year [1] Market Trends - The company has seen a significant increase in orders since September, particularly in the wool segment, indicating a positive market response to rising prices [2][3] - The average selling price (ASP) for wool products is expected to increase in the fourth quarter, reflecting the delayed price transmission from the rising wool prices [2][3] Profitability Forecast - The company anticipates continued growth in net profit, with projections for 2025-2027 being 460 million, 520 million, and 560 million yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 7.1%, 12.4%, and 9.5% [3][4] - The target price for the company's stock is set between 7.90 and 8.60 yuan, corresponding to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 13-14x for 2025 [3][4]