Three Squirrels(SZ:300783) GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES·2025-10-28 12:10Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [5][12]. Core Views - The company is undergoing active adjustments, reducing ineffective channel expenditures and cutting back on long-tail products, which has led to short-term profit pressure but is expected to improve gradually [3][12]. - Revenue for Q1-Q3 2025 reached 7.759 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.22%, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 161 million, a year-on-year decrease of 52.91% [12]. - The company is focusing on strengthening its supply chain and exploring offline channels, with expectations for marginal improvements in the future [12]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections are as follows: - 2023A: 7,115 million - 2024A: 10,622 million - 2025E: 11,699 million - 2026E: 13,842 million - 2027E: 16,304 million - Year-on-year growth rates are projected at -2.4%, 49.3%, 10.1%, 18.3%, and 17.8% respectively [4][13]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected as follows: - 2023A: 220 million - 2024A: 408 million - 2025E: 197 million - 2026E: 430 million - 2027E: 563 million - Year-on-year growth rates are projected at 69.9%, 85.5%, -51.6%, 118.1%, and 30.9% respectively [4][13]. - Earnings per share (EPS) estimates are: - 2023A: 0.55 - 2024A: 1.02 - 2025E: 0.49 - 2026E: 1.07 - 2027E: 1.40 [4][12]. Market Data - Current stock price is 23.36 yuan, with a target price set at 30.00 yuan [5][6]. - The market capitalization is 9,383 million yuan, with a total share capital of 402 million shares [6][12]. - The price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) for the current price and latest diluted share capital is 42.69 for 2023A, projected to decrease to 16.66 by 2027E [4][12].