STO(SZ:002468) Huachuang Securities·2025-10-28 13:16Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Shentong Express (002468) [1][9][27] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 38.57 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.2%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 756 million yuan, up 15.8% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of 13.55 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.6%, and a net profit of 300 million yuan, which is a significant year-on-year increase of 40.3% [1][9] - The report highlights the company's ability to release elasticity in a competitive market environment, indicating a potential turning point for the business [1][9] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company completed 18.86 billion parcels, a year-on-year increase of 17.1%, maintaining a market share of 13.0% [2] - The average revenue per parcel for the first three quarters of 2025 was 2.02 yuan, down 2.0% year-on-year, while in Q3 2025, it increased to 2.05 yuan, up 2.1% year-on-year [2][3] - The gross profit per parcel for the first three quarters of 2025 was 0.116 yuan, down 0.005 yuan year-on-year, while in Q3 2025, it increased to 0.129 yuan, up 0.018 yuan year-on-year [3] Financial Forecasts - The report forecasts total revenue for 2025 to be 51.95 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 10.1% [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to reach 1.39 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 33.8% [5] - The report sets a target price of 24.5 yuan for the stock, indicating a potential upside of 54% from the current price of 15.97 yuan [5][9]