YTO(SH:600233) Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-10-28 13:15Investment Rating - The investment rating for YTO Express (圆通速递) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights a recovery in performance growth, with expectations for profit growth and market share improvement amid industry changes [1][6] - The company reported a Q3 2025 revenue of 18.272 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.73%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.046 billion yuan, up 10.97% year-on-year, aligning with expectations [6] - The report maintains profit forecasts for 2025E-2027E, predicting net profits of 4.255 billion yuan, 5.069 billion yuan, and 5.990 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.0%, 19.1%, and 18.2% [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2025E is projected at 78.009 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 13.0% [5] - The net profit for 2025E is estimated at 4.255 billion yuan, with a corresponding PE ratio of 14x [5] - The company’s gross margin is expected to be 8.5% in 2025E, with a return on equity (ROE) of 12.1% [5]