SPG(SH:600529) Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-10-28 13:42Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing performance pressure, with a year-on-year revenue decline of 11.1% in the first three quarters, totaling 3.4 billion yuan, and a net profit decline of 24.7%, amounting to 540 million yuan [6] - There is a trend of improving profit margins, with a gross margin of 33.1% in the first three quarters, up by 1.0 percentage points year-on-year, and a significant improvement in the third quarter with a gross margin of 36.4% [6] - The company is expected to benefit from the support of China National Pharmaceutical Group after a change in actual control, which may enhance product sales, channel layout, and product development [6] - Despite short-term pressures, the long-term growth trend in the pharmaceutical glass industry is expected to continue, driven by consumption upgrades and industry upgrades [6] - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been slightly adjusted downwards, with expected net profits of 794 million, 917 million, and 1,010 million yuan respectively, reflecting a decrease of 12%, 11%, and 11% from previous estimates [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is projected to be 5,197 million yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 1.4% [5] - The expected net profit for 2025 is 794 million yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 15.8% [5] - The earnings per share for 2025 is estimated at 1.20 yuan [5] - The gross margin for 2025 is expected to be 27.9% [5] - The return on equity (ROE) for 2025 is projected at 9.5% [5]