| | | | | 【国泰海通建材】市场一致预期估值表 (鲍雁辛团队) 20250723 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 证券代码 | 证券名称 | 总市值(亿元) | | 归母净利(亿元) | PE | | PB | | | | | | 2025E | 2026E | 2025E | 2026E | (MRQ) | | | 600585.SH | 海螺水泥 | 1381 | 90.0 | 100.0 | 15.3 | 13.8 | 0.76 | | | 600801.SH | 华新水泥 | 319 | 25.0 | 30.0 | 12.7 | 10.6 | 1.08 | | | 000672.SZ | 上峰水泥 | 100 | 8.0 | વે છ | 12.6 | 10.6 | 1.11 | | | | 塔牌集团 | 104 | 7.5 | | 13.9 | 13.0 | 0.86 | | | 002233.SZ | | | | 8.0 | | | | | | 000877.SZ | 天山股份 | ...

本文核心数据：试产规模;区域需求结构 1、中硼硅玻璃细分市场中模制瓶市场占比高 转自：前瞻产业研究院 行业主要上市公司：力诺药包(301188.SZ)、山东药玻(600529.SH)、旗滨集团(601636.SH)、威高股份 (01066.HK)、正川股份(603976.SH)等 根据制药网、IQVIA、中国玻璃网以及力诺药包招股说明书，前瞻初步统计2024年中硼硅模制瓶市场规 模在中硼硅玻璃市场中占比约44%，中硼硅管制瓶(不含包安瓿瓶)与中硼硅安瓿瓶占比约占比接近。 2、2024年中硼硅安瓿瓶市场规模约25亿元 4、2024年中性硼硅管制瓶(不含安瓿瓶)市场规模约23亿元 根据制药网、IQVIA、中国玻璃网以及力诺药包招股说明书，前瞻初步统计2018-2024年中国中硼硅安 瓿瓶市场规模从6亿元增长至25亿元。 3、2024年中性硼硅模制瓶市场规模约38亿元 根据制药网、IQVIA、中国玻璃网以及力诺药包招股说明书，前瞻初步统计2018-2024年中国中硼硅模 制瓶市场规模从9亿元增长至38亿元。 根据制药网、IQVIA、中国玻璃网以及力诺药包招股说明书，前瞻初步统计2018-2024年中国中硼硅管 制瓶 ...

建筑材料 2025 年 07 月 20 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 2024-07 2024-11 2025-03 建筑材料 沪深300 相关研究报告 《住建部强调稳定房地产市场，关注 建 材 投 资 机 会 — 行业周报》- 2025.7.13 张绪成（分析师） 刘天文（分析师） zhangxucheng@kysec.cn liutianwen@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790523110001 中央城市工作会强调城市更新，关注建材投资机会 本周中央城市工作会议在北京举行。会议指出我国城镇化从快速增长期转向稳定 发展期，城市发展从大规模增量扩张转向存量提质增效为主的阶段。以推进城市 更新为重要抓手，稳步推进城中村和危旧房改造、老旧管线改造升级等，将拉动 管材、防水、涂料等消费建材需求。同时，推动城市高质量发展，"好房子" 概念 及相关住宅规范的执行，将提升高品质、绿色建材产品需求。我们认为，随着城 市更新政策的不断推进，地产链基本面有望迎来较大改善。消费建材板块推荐： 三棵树（渠道下沉，零售扩张）、东方雨虹（防水龙头，经营结 ...

与此同时，国药国际将鲁中投资纳入合并报表，并将通过鲁中投资间接持股山东药玻19.50%股份（1.29亿股），成为山东药玻的间接控股股东。自本次增 资完成之日起，国药国际通过鲁中投资间接持有山东药玻19.5%股份（鲁中投资仍为山东药玻第一大股东、持股19.5%）。 公司情报专家《财经涂鸦》获悉，7月17日，国家市场监督管理总局反垄断执法二司发布《中国国际医药卫生有限公司和国药国际香港有限公司收购山东 鲁中投资有限责任公司股权案》公示，公示期至7月26日。 根据公示，中国国际医药卫生有限公司（"国药国际"）、国药国际香港有限公司（"国药国际香港"）、山东鲁中控股集团有限公司（"鲁中控股"）、沂源 国有投资集团有限公司和山东鲁中投资有限责任公司（"鲁中投资"）签署协议，国药国际及国药国际香港向鲁中投资增资，鲁中投资主要从事药用包材的 生产与销售业务。 交易前，鲁中控股持有鲁中投资100%股权，单独控制鲁中投资。交易后，国药国际将持有鲁中投资36%的股权，国药国际香港将持有鲁中投资15%的股 权，鲁中控股持有鲁中投资49%股权，国药国际、国药国际香港、鲁中控股共同控制鲁中投资。 公示显示，国药国际与国药国际香港的最终 ...

转自：前瞻产业研究院 行业主要上市公司：力诺药包(301188.SZ)、山东药玻(600529.SH)、旗滨集团(601636.SH)、威高股份 (01066.HK)、正川股份(603976.SH)等 本文核心数据：产量;销量 1、中国中硼硅玻璃产能投资热度一般 力诺药包自2022年3月份首次尝试中硼硅模制瓶生产，第一批次小批量投资额达到4970万元，单吨投资达到 9800元/吨。且其2023年披露的量产产线投资额更高，单吨投资额达到1.38万元/吨。目前力诺药包放量尚需 时日，行业主要供给来自山东药玻。 2、中国中硼硅玻璃产能充足 山东药玻2022年非公开发行股票申请文件反馈意见的回复显示，40亿支一级耐水药用玻璃瓶项目达产后，中 硼硅模制瓶产能将17万吨。力诺药包2025年4个窑炉达产后，累计中硼硅模制瓶总产能预计可达62896吨。 根据公司年报披露情况，中国中硼硅玻璃行业龙头企业2024年销量相较2023年力诺药包外均有所下降，正川 股份硼硅玻璃管制瓶销量较2023年下降15.87%，力诺药包2024年药用玻璃销量较2023年同比上升20.57%， 山东药玻模制瓶系列、管制瓶和安瓿瓶销量分别同比下降0. ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **consumption building materials industry** and its performance in 2024, highlighting a **7.2% year-on-year decline** in revenue for the sector [1] - The **real estate demand** remains weak, impacting the consumption building materials sector, which has seen continuous revenue pressure over the past few quarters [1] Key Points and Arguments - **Revenue Trends**: The revenue growth for the consumption building materials sector is expected to decline in 2024, with quarterly comparisons showing fluctuations: **0.2% growth**, **5.3% decline**, **10.7% decline**, **10.9% decline**, and **5.7% decline** from Q1 2024 to Q1 2025 [1] - **Profitability Issues**: The industry faces challenges such as **declining gross margins** due to reduced demand and increased expense ratios. Some companies have reported increased impairments on goodwill and assets [2] - **Improvement in Profitability**: In Q1 2024, some companies managed to stabilize and improve profitability through better gross margins and expense control, with half of the consumption building materials companies reporting year-on-year gross margin increases [2] - **Net Profit Performance**: Among 26 analyzed companies, **10 reported year-on-year net profit increases**, and **9 showed improvements in net profit margins** both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, particularly in waterproofing and coating sectors [3] - **Market Resilience**: Despite the downturn in new housing demand, the sector shows resilience supported by the high demand for second-hand housing, which could lead to revenue growth if new housing demand stabilizes [4] Additional Insights - **Future Growth Potential**: Companies with strong brand and channel capabilities are expected to have significant growth potential. Key players mentioned include **Sanhe Tree, Tubaobao, Beixing Building Materials, and others** [5] - **Cement Industry Outlook**: The cement sector is projected to see a bottoming out in Q1 2024, with expectations of gradual improvement in profitability throughout the year. The industry experienced a **35% year-on-year decline** in scale in 2024 [5] - **Price Trends**: Cement prices are expected to rise after a period of decline, with a **1.4% year-on-year drop** in demand noted in Q1 2024, but a recovery is anticipated post-Chinese New Year [6] - **Cost Management**: The decline in coal prices is expected to stabilize industry profitability, with a projected **6% year-on-year decline** in cement demand for 2025 [7] - **Investment and Dividends**: Companies with low cash flow and stable investment returns, such as **Tapai Group and Ningxia Building Materials**, are highlighted for their significant profit contributions [8] Conclusion - The consumption building materials and cement industries are navigating through challenging market conditions, with signs of potential recovery in profitability and demand stabilization. Key players are expected to leverage their market positions for future growth opportunities.

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction materials industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development emphasizes the importance of stabilizing the real estate market, which is expected to lead to significant improvements in the fundamentals of the real estate chain. Recommended stocks in the consumer building materials sector include Sankeshu, Dongfang Yuhong, Weixing New Materials, and Jianlang Hardware. Beneficiary stocks include Beixin Building Materials [3] - The National Development and Reform Commission has issued a special action plan for energy conservation and carbon reduction in the cement industry, aiming to control cement clinker capacity at around 1.8 billion tons by the end of 2025, with a target of reducing comprehensive energy consumption per unit product by 3.7% compared to 2020 [3] - The "equal tariff" policy is expected to benefit fiberglass leaders with overseas production bases, allowing them to raise prices and consolidate profitability [3] Market Performance - The construction materials index rose by 3.34% in the week from July 7 to July 11, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.52 percentage points. Over the past three months, the CSI 300 index increased by 6.41%, while the construction materials index rose by 6.60%, indicating a slight outperformance of 0.18 percentage points [4][13] - In the past year, the CSI 300 index increased by 15.62%, and the construction materials index rose by 15.80%, also showing a slight outperformance of 0.18 percentage points [4][13] Cement Sector - As of July 11, 2025, the average price of P.O42.5 bulk cement nationwide was 282.89 CNY/ton, a decrease of 3.48% month-on-month. The clinker inventory ratio was 65.89%, down 2.29 percentage points [6][23][24] - The price of cement varied by region, with notable declines in Northeast (-4.76%), North China (-2.33%), East China (-2.98%), South China (-5.74%), Central China (-3.41%), and Southwest (-4.93%) regions [23][29] Glass Sector - The average price of float glass as of July 11, 2025, was 1205.63 CNY/ton, with a slight increase of 0.17%. The average price of photovoltaic glass remained stable at 116.02 CNY/weight box [6][71][78] - The inventory of float glass decreased by 970,000 weight boxes nationwide, a decline of 1.66% [73][74] Fiberglass Sector - The price of non-alkali 2400tex direct yarn ranged from 3400 to 4100 CNY/ton, with flexible pricing based on regional differences [6] Consumer Building Materials - As of July 11, 2025, the price of crude oil was 70.63 USD/barrel, down 0.39% week-on-week. The price of asphalt was 4570 CNY/ton, up 1.11% week-on-week [6]

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Index for Healthcare Equipment and Services has shown a slight increase of 0.39% recently, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in the healthcare sector [1] Group 1: Index Performance - The China Securities Index for Healthcare Equipment and Services is currently at 13,682.83 points with a trading volume of 18.089 billion [1] - Over the past month, the index has decreased by 0.83%, while it has increased by 2.95% over the last three months, and has seen a year-to-date decline of 0.43% [1] Group 2: Index Composition - The index is composed of listed companies that correspond to the healthcare theme, with a base date of December 31, 2004, set at 1,000.0 points [1] - The top ten weighted companies in the index include: Mindray Medical (9.44%), United Imaging (8.04%), Aier Eye Hospital (7.55%), Aimeike (3.41%), Huatai Medical (3.23%), New Industry (2.81%), Yuyue Medical (2.7%), Lepu Medical (2.54%), Meinian Onehealth (2.05%), and Shandong Pharmaceutical Glass (1.91%) [1] Group 3: Market Distribution - The index's holdings are primarily listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange (60.09%) and the Shanghai Stock Exchange (39.91%) [1] - The healthcare sector accounts for 100% of the index's holdings [1] Group 4: Index Adjustment and Fund Tracking - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with changes implemented on the next trading day following the second Friday of June and December [2] - Public funds tracking the healthcare index include various Southern and Tianhong funds, as well as ETFs from multiple financial institutions [2]

Group 1: ETF Performance and Liquidity - The biopharmaceutical vaccine ETF has a turnover rate of 1.9% during trading, with a transaction volume of 4.8922 million yuan [3] - Over the past two weeks, the biopharmaceutical vaccine ETF has seen a scale increase of 8.7844 million yuan, ranking first among comparable funds [3] - As of July 10, the biopharmaceutical vaccine ETF has achieved a net value increase of 22.89% over the past year [3] - The ETF's highest monthly return since inception is 26.27%, with the longest consecutive monthly gain being 3 months and the longest gain percentage being 14.87% [3] - The average return during the months of increase is 6.41% [3] Group 2: Index Valuation and Composition - The index tracked by the ETF, the CSI Vaccine and Biotechnology Index, is currently valued at a historical low, with a price-to-book ratio (PB) of 2.6 times, which is lower than 88.03% of the time over the past three years, indicating strong valuation attractiveness [3] - The CSI Vaccine and Biotechnology Index includes no more than 50 companies involved in vaccine research, production, and related biotechnology sectors, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in this theme [3] Group 3: Major Stocks and Market Trends - As of June 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Vaccine and Biotechnology Index include Zhifei Biological Products, Wantai Biological Pharmacy, Watson Bio, and others, collectively accounting for 48.14% of the index [4] - The top weighted stocks and their respective weights are: Zhifei Biological (10.06%), Wantai Biological (8.43%), Watson Bio (6.19%), and others [6] - On July 8, the National Healthcare Security Administration and the National Health Commission released measures to support the high-quality development of innovative drugs, proposing 16 supportive policies [6] Group 4: International Market Opportunities - Institutions are focusing on the opportunities for Chinese vaccines in international markets under the "World Shared Market" concept, particularly in Belt and Road countries [7] - Chinese vaccines are expected to leverage cost advantages to expand into the pharmaceutical markets of Belt and Road countries, especially in light of supply chain risks faced by non-U.S. countries [7] - The vaccine market is sensitive to population variables, and Chinese companies have established production capacity and distribution channels in Belt and Road countries, laying a solid foundation for international expansion [7]

Group 1 - The global borosilicate glass industry has entered a high-quality development stage, driven by its importance in laboratories, industrial applications, and household products [1] - The demand for borosilicate glass is expanding due to its applications in various products such as thermometers, lamp shades, syringes, and baby bottles [1] Group 2 - The global borosilicate glass market is projected to reach approximately $4.4 billion by 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 4.6% [3] - The North American region is currently the largest market for borosilicate glass, accounting for nearly half of the global market share [4] Group 3 - By 2030, the global borosilicate glass market is expected to grow to $6.5 billion, benefiting from the development of the global pharmaceutical market and increased penetration in developing countries [6] Group 4 - Key trends in the global borosilicate glass industry include the growing importance of emerging markets, the need for sustainable development, and continuous improvement in production processes [10] - Emerging markets are expected to play a significant role in the growth of the borosilicate glass market due to urbanization and rising income levels [10] - Companies are facing stricter environmental regulations and need to invest in cleaner production methods to reduce waste emissions [10] - Industry leaders are innovating production techniques to enhance efficiency and product quality, utilizing advanced technologies such as AI and big data [10]