TIANSHAN ALUMINUM(SZ:002532) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-10-28 14:13Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tianshan Aluminum (002532.SZ) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company demonstrated strong performance in Q3 2025, with a year-on-year revenue increase of 7.34% to 22.32 billion yuan and a net profit increase of 8.31% to 3.34 billion yuan. The Q3 revenue was 6.99 billion yuan, slightly down by 0.35% year-on-year and 5.53% quarter-on-quarter, while net profit rose by 24.30% year-on-year and 22.41% quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to rising aluminum prices and lower electricity costs [4][5] - The company is expected to perform even better in Q4 2025, with continued high aluminum prices and decreasing bauxite costs. The profit forecasts for 2025 to 2027 have been raised, with expected net profits of 4.845 billion, 5.905 billion, and 6.962 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 8.7%, 21.9%, and 17.9% [4][5] - The company is advancing its 1.4 million tons of electrolytic aluminum capacity green low-carbon efficiency improvement project, with the first batch of aluminum ingots expected to be produced by December 2025 [5] - The company has implemented a share buyback plan, repurchasing 23.71 million shares, which is 0.51% of its total share capital. Additionally, it plans to distribute cash dividends of no less than 50% of the annual net profit [6] Financial Summary - For 2025, the company is projected to achieve a revenue of 29.169 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.8%. The net profit is expected to be 4.845 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.7% increase. The EPS for 2025 is estimated at 1.04 yuan per share, with a corresponding P/E ratio of 12.4 times [8][10]