Zhejiang Xinao Textiles (SH:603889) Guoxin Securities·2025-10-28 14:13Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][3]. Core Views - The company has shown steady revenue growth in the third quarter, driven by cashmere sales, with a projected performance boost in the fourth quarter from fine wool products [1][3]. - The company has a significant inventory of low-cost raw materials, which positions it well to benefit from rising wool prices, with a 28% increase noted since June [2][3]. - The company expects to achieve both volume and price increases in its fine wool business in the fourth quarter, supported by a recovery in order intake [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 3.894 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.60%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 377 million yuan, up 1.98% year-on-year [1]. - The operating cash flow net amount was 244 million yuan, a decrease of 8.32% year-on-year [1]. - In the third quarter alone, the company achieved revenue of 1.34 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.90%, with a net profit of 107 million yuan, up 2.76% year-on-year [1]. Market Trends - The company has seen a robust increase in cashmere yarn sales, with double-digit growth driven by volume, while fine wool yarn sales experienced a slight decline due to lower sales volume [2]. - The company’s pricing strategy is expected to reflect the recent increases in raw material costs, with significant order growth noted in September [2]. Profitability Forecast - The company anticipates continued improvement in gross margins due to the favorable pricing environment, with gross margin increasing by 1.1 percentage points to 17.6% year-on-year [1]. - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been slightly adjusted upwards, with expected net profits of 460 million, 520 million, and 560 million yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 7.1%, 12.4%, and 9.5% [3][4]. Valuation - The target price for the company is set between 7.90 and 8.60 yuan, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of 13-14x for 2025 [3][5]. - The company’s market capitalization is approximately 5.828 billion yuan, with a closing price of 7.98 yuan [5].