XUEDA(SZ:000526) HUAXI Securities·2025-10-28 14:21Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's revenue and net profit for Q3 2025 were 6.97 million and 0.01 million respectively, showing a year-on-year growth of 11.19%, but the net profit fell significantly by 89.90% due to rapid expansion leading to upfront labor and sales costs, resulting in a decline in gross and net profit margins [2] - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenues of 26.13 million, a year-on-year increase of 16.30%, while operating cash flow was 7.62 million, reflecting a 10.35% growth, primarily driven by increased advance payments in the education training business [2] - The company is experiencing a slowdown in revenue growth due to intensified industry competition and a slight decrease in market conditions, although contract liabilities continue to grow rapidly [3] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 27.2%, down 5.1 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 0.2%, down 2.1 percentage points year-on-year [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company’s revenue for 2025 is projected to be 32.01 billion, 35.67 billion, and 39.58 billion for the years 2025-2027, with corresponding net profit estimates adjusted to 2.41 billion, 3.00 billion, and 3.57 billion [4] - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025-2027 have been revised to 1.98, 2.46, and 2.93 respectively, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 21, 17, and 14 for the same period [4] Investment Recommendations - In the short term, despite increased competition and a slight downturn in market conditions, the company’s position as a leader in one-on-one training and its potential for net profit margin improvement remain intact [4] - In the medium to long term, the high-margin small class and full-time base businesses are expected to enhance overall net profit margins [4] - The report highlights potential growth in vocational education due to rising demand, alongside opportunities in educational technology and cultural spaces as long-term growth drivers [4]