Lepu Medical(SZ:300003) ZHONGTAI SECURITIES·2025-10-28 14:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative performance increase of over 15% compared to the benchmark index in the next 6 to 12 months [2][17]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 4.938 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.20%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 982 million yuan, up 22.35% year-on-year [4]. - In Q3 2025 alone, the company achieved a revenue of 1.569 billion yuan, marking an 11.97% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 291 million yuan, which is a significant growth of 176.18% year-on-year [4]. - The cardiovascular business remains solid, with innovative products expected to offset the impact of centralized procurement [4]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profitability: - The company’s revenue for 2023 is projected at 7.98 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 25%. However, a recovery is expected with a projected revenue of 6.61 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting an 8% growth [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to rebound significantly to 1.053 billion yuan in 2025, a 327% increase from 2024 [2]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 64.21%, an increase of 1.41 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin reached 20.17%, up 3.80 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - Segment Performance: - The medical device segment generated 2.572 billion yuan in revenue in the first three quarters of 2025, a slight increase of 0.33% year-on-year, with the cardiovascular intervention business contributing 1.793 billion yuan, up 7.45% [4]. - The pharmaceutical segment saw a revenue of 1.570 billion yuan, growing by 6.37% year-on-year, with the formulation business alone achieving a 14.32% increase [4]. - New Growth Areas: - The medical aesthetics and brain-machine interface businesses are emerging as new growth drivers, with the medical services and health management segment achieving a revenue of 321 million yuan, up 28.27% year-on-year [4]. - Innovative products such as the "童颜针" and "水光针" have been launched, contributing to the company's revenue growth [4]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to maintain a stable operational base, with projected revenues of 6.610 billion yuan, 7.558 billion yuan, and 8.636 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting growth rates of 8%, 14%, and 14% [4]. - The projected net profit for 2025 is 1.053 billion yuan, with further increases to 1.302 billion yuan in 2026 and 1.606 billion yuan in 2027, indicating a strong recovery trajectory [4]. - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 32 for 2025, 26 for 2026, and 21 for 2027, supporting the "Buy" rating [4].