Drinda(SZ:002865) BOCOM International·2025-10-28 14:47Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, indicating an expectation of total returns exceeding the relevant industry over the next 12 months [4][11]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing stable losses in Q3 2025, with a loss of 155 million RMB, which is consistent with the previous quarter. The increase in upstream silicon prices and silver prices has led to higher non-silicon costs, but battery prices have not significantly increased due to limited acceptance of price hikes by end customers [2][7]. - The report highlights potential impacts on exports due to India's anti-dumping measures, which could affect the company's market share in that region. The final decision on the tax rates is still pending [7][8]. - The company is adjusting its overseas shipment forecasts for 2026 and 2027 downwards due to changing trade conditions and cautious progress on the Oman project [7][8]. - Following a stock price correction, the valuation is considered attractive, and the target price has been adjusted to 46.34 RMB, corresponding to a 13.3x P/E ratio for 2026 [7][8]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections show a significant decline from 18,657 million RMB in 2023 to 8,281 million RMB in 2025E, with a projected growth rebound in 2026 to 12,634 million RMB [3][13]. - Net profit is expected to turn negative in 2024 and 2025, with estimates of -591 million RMB and -534 million RMB respectively, before recovering to 1,018 million RMB in 2026 [3][13]. - The company’s gross margin is projected to be 14.7% in 2023, dropping to 2.0% in 2025E, and recovering to 15.5% in 2026E [15]. Valuation Metrics - The target price of 46.34 RMB reflects a potential upside of 15.8% from the current price of 40.02 RMB [1][11]. - The company’s market capitalization is approximately 8,929.66 million RMB, with a 52-week high of 80.40 RMB and a low of 36.08 RMB [6][11]. - The report indicates a projected P/E ratio of 11.2 for 2023, with estimates for future years remaining non-significant until 2026 [3][13].