央行重启购债的影响或未完全反应

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The resumption of the central bank's bond - buying may not fully reflect its impact on the bond market. The 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250011 is expected to approach 1.7%. - The domestic interest - rate cut cycle may not end. Although there is uncertainty about the timing of the interest - rate cut in Q4, the resumption of Treasury bond trading reflects that the economy still needs monetary policy support. - The central bank's need for reserve requirement ratio cuts is not urgent, and more attention should be paid to the actual changes in liquidity. - In the current situation, a relatively positive attitude towards bonds can be maintained. It is advisable to maintain a certain leverage, retain long - bond positions, and appropriately increase the holdings of some 3 - 5 - year interest - rate bonds to take advantage of the potential decline in short - term interest rates after the resumption of bond - buying [2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Why Restart Bond - Buying Now? - With the continuous increase in fiscal expansion in recent years, the central bank's Treasury bond trading is an important measure to maintain fiscal sustainability and stabilize interest - rate fluctuations. However, due to concerns about market risks, the central bank suspended bond - buying in January 2024. - After July 2025, the central bank's concerns about risks decreased, and the necessity of bond - buying increased due to the decline in commercial banks' ability to undertake government bonds. - The central bank may have believed that the large impact on the interest - rate curve in 2024 was due to insufficient liquidity in the domestic bond market. After the implementation of measures such as canceling the freezing of pledged bonds and the centralized bond lending business, the conditions for restarting bond - buying were basically met. - In October, considering the need to achieve the annual economic and social development goals and the expected increase in government bond supply in November and December, it was a suitable choice for the central bank to restart bond - buying [6][7][8][13]. 3.2 Will There Be Reserve Requirement Ratio Cuts and Interest - Rate Cuts After the Resumption of Bond - Buying? - Market expectations for overall monetary easing have cooled with the easing of Sino - US trade frictions. The central bank did not clearly mention reserve requirement ratio cuts or interest - rate cuts when announcing the resumption of bond - buying. - The current economic problem is mainly the insufficient demand caused by debt digestion. Interest - rate cuts are an important means to relieve debt pressure and repair the internal driving force of the economy. Therefore, the domestic interest - rate cut cycle may not end. - From a fundamental perspective, there is a need for an interest - rate cut in Q4, but there is uncertainty about the timing due to factors such as financial stability and policy space. - The need for a reserve requirement ratio cut is not urgent because the liquidity consumed by reserve requirements in the first three quarters is roughly equivalent to the scale of the May reserve requirement ratio cut, and the central bank has hedged external disturbances through other means. The impact of reserve requirement ratio cuts on the bond market has weakened in recent years, and more attention should be paid to liquidity changes [14][15][16][20]. 3.3 How to Respond to Bond Investment? - After the news of the central bank's resumption of bond - buying was announced, long - term interest rates dropped significantly, but there are views that the positive impact on the bond market has been basically reflected. - The impact of the central bank's bond - buying on long - term bonds may be weaker than in 2024. However, the resumption of bond - buying reflects the need for monetary policy to cooperate with fiscal expansion. If the fundamentals remain unchanged, the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250011 is expected to reach around 1.7%. - In October, the short - and medium - term interest rates did not decline significantly. There is a possibility of a decline in short - and medium - term policy - financial bond yields due to the high certainty of loose liquidity. - After the resumption of bond - buying, short - term interest rates may gradually decline, and the specific situation depends on the scale and method of the central bank's bond - buying. - A relatively positive attitude towards bonds can be maintained. It is advisable to maintain a certain leverage, retain long - bond positions, and appropriately increase the holdings of some 3 - 5 - year interest - rate bonds to take advantage of the potential decline in short - term interest rates [27][28][30][34].