Shennong Group(SH:605296) Guoxin Securities·2025-10-28 15:21Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the company [6][4][23] Core Insights - The company has maintained industry-leading per-head breeding profits, with room for cost reduction. For Q1-Q3 2025, revenue decreased by 3.79% year-on-year to 3.923 billion yuan, and net profit decreased by 3.89% to 462 million yuan. In Q3 2025, revenue fell by 28.9% to 1.126 billion yuan, and net profit dropped by 79.21% to 74 million yuan. The company achieved a per-head profit of approximately 100-150 yuan, with total breeding costs around 12.5-13.0 yuan/kg [1][10][4] - The company has a strong financial structure with a low debt ratio of 27.07% as of Q3 2025, providing ample financing space. The company also emphasizes cash dividends, planning to distribute 205 million yuan, which accounts for 53% of the net profit for the first half of the year [3][4][6] - The company is focused on long-term high-quality development through strategic partnerships and investments in core breeding projects, ensuring a stable supply of high-quality breeding pigs [2][4] Financial Performance and Forecast - The company forecasts net profits of 610 million, 580 million, and 510 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 25, 26, and 29 [4][5][24] - Revenue is projected to grow from 3.891 billion yuan in 2023 to 6.492 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 16.2% [5][24] - The company aims to reduce breeding costs by 1 yuan/kg by 2026, based on current average raw material prices [1][10]