Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong performance expectation relative to the market [2]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in contract liabilities, suggesting a strong performance in the fourth quarter, which is typically the peak season for the company [7]. - The company has faced challenges due to external factors, including the cancellation of a trade show in the U.S., but this has been seen as a strategic move to optimize profit margins [7]. - The introduction of overseas warehouse operations in Indonesia and Brazil is expected to create new growth opportunities for the company [7]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 401 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.67%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 34.63 million yuan, down 49.17% year-on-year [7]. - The company’s total revenue is projected to reach 855 million yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 13.7% [6]. - The net profit for 2025 is estimated at 144 million yuan, reflecting a decrease of 7.2% compared to the previous year [6]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company’s revenue is expected to grow significantly in the coming years, with projections of 1.239 billion yuan in 2026 and 1.462 billion yuan in 2027 [9]. - The gross profit margin is anticipated to be 53.4% in 2025, with a slight decline to 47.4% in 2026 [6]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 21.4% in 2025, increasing to 25.7% in 2026 [6]. Market Comparison - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 29 for 2025, 20 for 2026, and 18 for 2027 [7]. - The target market capitalization for the company is set at 5.5 billion yuan, indicating a potential upside of 34% from the current market value [7].
米奥会展（300795）：关注四季度弹性，印尼、巴西海外仓预计逐步落地