甘源食品（002991）：收入逐季改善，利润降幅收窄

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [5] Core Views - The company has shown a significant improvement in revenue on a quarterly basis, with Q3 2025 revenue reaching 590 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 26.3% year-on-year to 80 million yuan due to increased brand expenditure [1][2] - The gross margin improved by 0.3 percentage points to 37.1% in Q3 2025, marking the first positive growth this year, attributed to product structure optimization amidst rising palm oil costs [2] - The company is undergoing a channel transformation, with ongoing expansion in direct supermarkets and overseas markets, which is expected to yield positive results in the future [2][3] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.53 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.5% year-on-year, and a net profit of 160 million yuan, down 43.7% year-on-year [1] - The projected revenue for 2025-2027 is estimated at 2.23 billion yuan, 2.57 billion yuan, and 2.88 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -1.2%, +15.2%, and +12.2% respectively. The net profit for the same period is expected to be 260 million yuan, 340 million yuan, and 400 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -32.2%, +33.8%, and +16.6% respectively [3][4] - The company’s net profit margin for Q3 2025 was 13.9%, down 5.8 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to brand expenditure [2] Financial Ratios - The company’s P/E ratio for 2025 is projected to be 19.9, while the P/B ratio is expected to be 2.6 [4] - The return on equity (ROE) for 2025 is estimated at 13.3% [4]