甘源食品（002991）：营收增速转正，净利率改善

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company has shown a positive revenue growth in Q3 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 4.37% to reach 5.88 billion yuan, indicating a recovery from previous declines [8] - The net profit margin has improved, with a Q3 net profit of 820 million yuan, although it still reflects a year-on-year decrease of 26.31% [8] - The report highlights that the revenue growth is attributed to the contribution from new products, particularly in the snack wholesale channel and e-commerce adjustments [8] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 is reported at 37.1%, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.3 percentage points, driven by an improved product mix with a higher proportion of high-margin bean products [8] - The report anticipates a rebound in performance in 2026, especially if raw material costs decline, which would enhance earnings elasticity [8] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to be 22.57 billion yuan in 2024, with a slight increase to 22.60 billion yuan in 2025, followed by 24.52 billion yuan in 2026 and 26.46 billion yuan in 2027 [1] - The net profit for 2025 is expected to be 2.60 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 31%, but is projected to recover to 4.00 billion yuan in 2026 and 4.78 billion yuan in 2027 [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 2.79 yuan, with a projected increase to 4.31 yuan in 2026 and 5.13 yuan in 2027 [1] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is forecasted to be 19.49 for 2025, decreasing to 12.63 in 2026 and 10.60 in 2027 [1]