BURTC(SH:600861) Guoxin Securities·2025-10-29 02:36Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][12][13] Core Views - The company's operational efficiency is improving as expected, with a steady pace of subsidy realization. The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 is 1.16 billion, 1.01 billion, and 1.12 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to PE valuations of 9.2, 10.6, and 9.6 times. Excluding the impact of property disposal, the main business net profit is estimated at 0.90 billion, 1.01 billion, and 1.12 billion yuan, with a CAGR of approximately 12% [3][12][14] Financial Performance Summary - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 33.807 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.9%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.007 billion yuan, up 57.0% year-on-year, while the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains was 434 million yuan, an increase of 7.9% year-on-year. The significant growth in net profit is attributed to a one-time investment gain of 360 million yuan from the disposal of a wholly-owned subsidiary and steady growth in government subsidies [1][8][12] - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 11.116 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.7% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 194 million yuan, down 6.6% year-on-year, while the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains was 139 million yuan, an increase of 10.3% year-on-year. The decline in net profit is primarily due to differences in the timing of government subsidy recognition [1][8][12] Business Segment Performance - The core subsidiary, Beijing Foreign Enterprise (FESCO), achieved revenue of 33.81 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 756 million yuan, up 16.0% year-on-year, and the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains was 461 million yuan, an increase of 11.6% year-on-year. The performance targets for the year are expected to be met, with the completion rate for net profit after deducting non-recurring gains estimated at 73% [1][8][12] Profitability Metrics - In Q3 2025, the gross profit margin was 2.1%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year. The expense ratio was 3.0%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit margin attributable to the parent company was 1.7%, down 0.1 percentage points, mainly due to the timing of subsidy recognition [2][9][12] Regulatory Environment - The new social insurance regulations that came into effect on September 1, 2025, require employers to pay "five insurances" for employees, which is expected to benefit the leading human resources company amid a wave of compliance in labor relations [11][12]