TIANSHAN ALUMINUM(SZ:002532) Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-10-29 02:45Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tianshan Aluminum [6] Core Views - The company's performance in the first three quarters of 2025 met expectations, with total revenue of 22.32 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.34 billion yuan, up 8.3% year-on-year [6] - The increase in profits is attributed to rising prices of electrolytic aluminum products and improved costs, with the average market price for electrolytic aluminum in Q3 2025 at 20,711 yuan per ton, a 2.5% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 5.9% increase year-on-year [6] - The company is steadily advancing a 240,000-ton electrolytic aluminum expansion project, which is expected to enhance its integrated layout [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue forecast for 2025 is 29.96 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.7% [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is projected at 4.80 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.7% [2] - Earnings per share for 2025 is estimated at 1.03 yuan, with a gross margin of 23.8% [2] - The return on equity (ROE) for 2025 is expected to be 16.1% [2] Market Data - As of October 28, 2025, the closing price of the stock is 12.92 yuan, with a market capitalization of 53.36 billion yuan [3] - The stock has a price-to-book ratio of 2.1 and a dividend yield of 3.10% [3] Expansion and Investment Plans - The company plans to invest 1.556 billion USD in constructing a 2 million-ton alumina production line in Indonesia, with preliminary work already underway [6] - The self-sufficiency rate for bauxite is expected to gradually improve due to the acquisition of mining rights in Guangxi and ongoing projects in Guinea and Indonesia [6] Dividend Policy - The company plans to maintain a cumulative dividend payout ratio of no less than 50% for 2025, an increase from 41.42% in 2024 [6] - The estimated dividend yield based on the closing price on October 28, 2025, is projected to be 4.0% for 2025 and 5.1% for 2026 [6]