HSTD(SH:600054) Guoxin Securities·2025-10-29 02:54Investment Rating - The investment rating for Huangshan Tourism (600054.SH) is "Outperform the Market" [6][18]. Core Views - The company has actively optimized its ticket pricing policy, leading to stable growth in both volume and price. The focus is on the expansion of core scenic areas to release incremental capacity [2][3]. - The company reported a revenue of 5.95 billion yuan for Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3.05%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 17.17% to 1.27 billion yuan [8][4]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.70 yuan per 10 shares, corresponding to a dividend payout ratio of approximately 20.14% for the first three quarters [8][4]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 15.35 billion yuan, up 8.75% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.53 billion yuan, down 11.02% year-on-year [8][4]. - Excluding the impact of resource usage fees, the net profit for the first three quarters is estimated to have increased by 3.2% year-on-year, indicating stable development [8][4]. Visitor Trends and Pricing Strategy - The company has adjusted its marketing strategy, narrowing the scope of ticket discounts while refining customer channels, resulting in an increase in both visitor numbers and average ticket prices. In the first three quarters, the total number of visitors to Huangshan Scenic Area reached 3.7572 million, a year-on-year increase of 3.44% [2][3]. - The average ticket price for visitors increased by approximately 12% year-on-year, attributed to the reduction in free ticket policies and strong conversion rates for mountain cable cars and hotels [2][3]. Future Growth and Expansion - The company is expected to see good growth in its core profit-generating businesses on the mountain, while the businesses at the base may continue to face competition and environmental challenges [2][3]. - The company is actively pursuing expansion projects, including the renovation of the Beihai Hotel, which is expected to contribute approximately 28 million yuan in annual profit, and the development of the East Huangshan cableway [3][4]. - Recently, the company announced an investment of 90 million yuan to establish a wholly-owned subsidiary for a family resort project, aligning with leisure vacation trends [3][4]. Financial Forecasts - The net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised down to 2.8 billion yuan, 3.3 billion yuan, and 3.7 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 29, 25, and 22 times [4][15]. - The company is expected to leverage its premium resources and the expansion of mountain hotels to overcome visitor capacity constraints, while the integration of resources and diversified business layouts at the base are anticipated to unlock mid-term profit potential [4][15].