拥抱低空与AI科技，公司降本与服务能力有望同步提升。黄山旅游正加快推进智慧景区建设，2024年已实测应用"登山神器"、AI旅行助手、无人机运输等数智化成果，预计将改善传统山岳型景 北海宾馆翻新将增强山顶住宿承接力，拉动酒店板块恢复。北海宾馆改造工程正加快推进，预计2025年9月完工。该项目为景区核心地段的高星酒店，改造后预计将提升房型结构、设施体验与定 盈利预测与投资建议 考虑景区票价承压与酒店改造节奏放缓，我们下调公司2025–2026年盈利预测，预计公司2025–2027年EPS分别为0.52/0.56/0.59元(前次预测25/26年EPS为0.72/0.76元)。考虑公司在 风险提示 景区客流恢复不及预期、天气等自然因素扰动、重点改造项目投产进度或效果不达预期。 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ ...

证券研究报告——晨会聚焦 2025 年 7 月 25 日 | 7 月金股组合 | | | --- | --- | | 股票代码 | 股票名称 | | 002244.SZ | 滨江集团 | | 002352.SZ | 顺丰控股 | | 1519.HK | 极兔速递-W | | 002648.SZ | 卫星化学 | | 688019.SH | 安集科技 | | 688680.SH | 海优新材 | | 603011.SH | 合锻智能 | | 600054.SH | 黄山旅游 | | 300476.SZ | 胜宏科技 | | 688519.SH | 南亚新材 | 中银晨会聚焦-20250725 深证成指 11193.06 1.21 沪深 300 4149.04 0.71 中小 100 6934.38 1.24 创业板指 2345.37 1.50 | 行业表现（申万一级） | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 涨跌% | 指数名称 | 涨跌% | | 美容护理 | 3.10 | 银行 | (1.42) | | 有色金属 | 2.78 | 通信 | (0.15) | | ...

证券研究报告——晨会聚焦 2025 年 7 月 24 日 | 7 月金股组合 | | | --- | --- | | 股票代码 | 股票名称 | | 002244.SZ | 滨江集团 | | 002352.SZ | 顺丰控股 | | 1519.HK | 极兔速递-W | | 002648.SZ | 卫星化学 | | 688019.SH | 安集科技 | | 688680.SH | 海优新材 | | 603011.SH | 合锻智能 | | 600054.SH | 黄山旅游 | | 300476.SZ | 胜宏科技 | | 688519.SH | 南亚新材 | 中银晨会聚焦-20250724 ■重点关注 【策略研究】策略点评*王君 徐亚。人形机器人低位再起。2025 年 7 月 7 日-2025 年 7 月 18 日。 【金融工程】主动权益基金 2025 年二季度配置分析*郭策 李腾。仓位监控： 截止到 2025Q2，主动权益基金仓位中位数为 90.63%，与上一季度相比有所 提升，自 2020 年以来持续围绕在 90%仓位震荡，目前处于历史高位。 【电子】AI 算力产业链更新报告*苏凌瑶。进入 2025 年， ...

证券研究报告——晨会聚焦 2025 年 7 月 21 日 | 7 月金股组合 | | | --- | --- | | 股票代码 | 股票名称 | | 002244.SZ | 滨江集团 | | 002352.SZ | 顺丰控股 | | 1519.HK | 极兔速递-W | | 002648.SZ | 卫星化学 | | 688019.SH | 安集科技 | | 688680.SH | 海优新材 | | 603011.SH | 合锻智能 | | 600054.SH | 黄山旅游 | | 300476.SZ | 胜宏科技 | | 688519.SH | 南亚新材 | 中银晨会聚焦-20250721 ■重点关注 【宏观经济】2025 年 7 月中央城市工作会议学习体会*陈琦 朱启兵。"城市 更新"或是未来城市工作的重要内容。基建、地产投资有望得到提振。"创新" 是会议的重要关键词。 【电子】AI 端侧深度之智能驾驶（上）*苏凌瑶。在大模型引领的技术潮流 下，AI 能力加速赋能各类硬件终端，与一般硬件终端应用 AI 能力的方式不 同，智能驾驶将 AI 能力应用于改变物理世界。当前正值高阶智能驾驶商业 落地的关键时点，为探 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [2][11]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant differentiation in performance across various sectors within the social services industry, particularly in tourism and hospitality, driven by changing consumer behaviors and economic conditions [3][4]. - The hotel industry is transitioning from a rapid growth phase to a more competitive environment, with a notable increase in the number of hotels and rooms available [3][4]. - The demand for duty-free shopping is anticipated to grow due to global economic recovery and consumption upgrades, despite some companies facing revenue declines [3][4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Tourism Attractions - Jiuhua Tourism is projected to achieve a 22% increase in revenue and a 28% increase in net profit for H1 2025. Huangshan Tourism is expected to generate revenue of 911 million yuan, a 9% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 149 million yuan, up 13% [3][4]. - Changbai Mountain is forecasted to see a 7.48% decrease in revenue, with a net loss of 2 million yuan, marking a 110% decline [3][4]. - Tianmu Lake is expected to report a 5% revenue increase to 277 million yuan and a 9% rise in net profit to 58 million yuan [3][4]. Hotel Industry - Huazhu is expected to generate 11.66 billion yuan in revenue for H1 2025, a 2% increase, with a net profit of 2.04 billion yuan, up 18% [3][4]. - Shoulv Hotel is projected to see a 4% decline in revenue to 3.59 billion yuan, while net profit is expected to rise by 9% to 391 million yuan [3][4]. - Atour Hotel anticipates a 30% revenue increase to 4.24 billion yuan and a 16% rise in net profit to 653 million yuan [3][4]. Exhibition & Human Resource Services - The report notes increasing competition in the domestic market, with companies like Miao Exhibition expected to achieve a 9% revenue increase to 284 million yuan, despite a significant drop in net profit [3][4]. - Beijing Human Resources is projected to see a 6% revenue increase to 23.29 billion yuan, with a substantial 81% rise in net profit to 785 million yuan [3][4]. Duty-Free Sector - China Duty-Free is expected to report a 9% decline in revenue to 28.58 billion yuan and a 14% decrease in net profit to 2.84 billion yuan [3][4]. - Wangfujing is projected to see an 18% decline in revenue to 4.95 billion yuan, with a 73% drop in net profit to 80 million yuan [3][4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies in various sectors: 1. Exhibition and events: Lansheng Co., Lisheng Sports, Miao Exhibition 2. Human resources: Beijing Human Resources, Keri International 3. Tourism: Changbai Mountain, Jiuhua Tourism, Huangshan Tourism, Songcheng Performing Arts, Tianmu Lake 4. Hotels: Shoulv Hotel, Huazhu, Atour 5. Duty-free: China Duty-Free, Wangfujing [3][4].

Core Insights - The report highlights the strong growth potential of Tongcheng Travel, a leading OTA in China's lower-tier markets, benefiting from the tourism boom and support from major shareholders Tencent and Ctrip [3][6][8] - In 2024, Tongcheng Travel is projected to achieve revenue of CNY 17.34 billion, a year-on-year increase of 45.8%, and an adjusted net profit of CNY 2.79 billion, up 26.7% year-on-year [6] Company Overview - Tongcheng Travel is formed from the merger of Tongcheng and eLong, positioning itself as a top three player in the OTA industry, providing comprehensive travel services including transportation and accommodation bookings [6][8] - The company has a significant user base from non-first-tier cities, allowing it to capitalize on the growth in lower-tier markets [8] Industry Analysis - The online travel market is expected to exceed CNY 1 trillion in 2024, driven by high demand in the cultural tourism sector and low penetration rates in lower-tier cities [7] - The current market structure is characterized by a dominant player (Ctrip) and several strong competitors (Tongcheng, Meituan, Feizhu), with a focus on differentiated competition [7] - The bargaining power in the transportation sector is low due to high supplier concentration, while the accommodation sector has a higher bargaining power with lower supplier concentration [7]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes that service consumption has become a core strategy for expanding domestic demand in 2025, with significant potential for growth in China compared to developed economies like the US and Japan [4][8][28] - The report highlights that China's per capita GDP has surpassed $10,000, marking a critical window for the rapid development of service consumption, particularly in entertainment and leisure sectors [4][30][32] - Key measures to boost service consumption include increasing residents' income, enhancing leisure time, and encouraging high-quality service supply [4][8][28] Group 2 - The tea beverage industry is identified as having substantial growth potential, with a rational increase in store numbers and a shift towards emotional value for consumers, particularly among younger demographics [9] - The restaurant industry is expected to see steady growth, with a focus on government subsidies and an increase in chain operations, indicating a structural differentiation between mass and high-end markets [10] - Meituan is noted for its strategic investments in ecosystem development, maintaining a competitive edge despite short-term market fluctuations [11] Group 3 - The education sector is experiencing a concentration of market share among high-quality institutions, driven by regulatory changes and a persistent demand for K12 education [12] - The human resources industry is undergoing structural recovery, with a focus on AI applications to enhance efficiency and reduce costs [13] - The tourism sector is benefiting from policy-driven support and accelerated industry consolidation, with a notable increase in domestic travel demand [14] Group 4 - The hotel industry is facing a slowdown in supply growth, with leading hotel groups adjusting their operations to maintain competitive performance [14] - The duty-free sector is showing signs of recovery, with a stabilization in average transaction values and a narrowing decline in sales, supported by product diversification and new channel expansions [15]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the ongoing supply-side reform aimed at the orderly exit of backward production capacity, marking a significant policy shift from self-regulation to higher-level government intervention [6][7] - The market is expected to experience a "pulse-like" behavior due to unclear demand-side conditions, contrasting with the more robust demand seen during the 2016 supply-side reforms [7][9] - There is a notable focus on the differentiation between "old industries" (e.g., steel, coal, cement) and "new industries" (e.g., new energy vehicles, lithium batteries, photovoltaic sectors), with a recommendation to prioritize sectors with external demand [7][8] Market Performance - The report provides a snapshot of market indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3472.32, reflecting a 0.32% increase, while the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.25% [4] - The banking sector showed a strong performance with a 1.84% increase, while the beauty care sector declined by 1.87% [5] Industry Analysis - The report indicates a marginal recovery in production and demand expectations for June, with the PMI showing slight improvement, suggesting a potential stabilization in industrial profits [9][10] - It highlights that the price pressures are expected to ease, and inventory levels are likely to remain resilient, indicating a positive outlook for the second half of the year [9][10] - The report suggests that the profitability factors are anticipated to improve, with a focus on high profitability, small-cap, and high-valuation stocks expected to outperform in the coming month [10]

Core Viewpoint - The tourism industry, once expected to thrive, is now facing significant challenges, highlighted by the bankruptcy of Qinghai Tourism Investment Group and the struggles of various tourism companies despite an increase in domestic travel and spending [2][3][4][8]. Group 1: Industry Challenges - Qinghai Tourism Investment Group and its subsidiaries have filed for bankruptcy, shocking the tourism sector [3]. - The company, which aimed for significant growth and public listing, mismanaged its resources, leading to a loss of 4.8 billion in registered capital [4]. - 44 listed companies in the tourism sector reported their Q1 earnings, with 25 experiencing negative revenue growth, accounting for 56.8% of the total [4]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Major airlines like China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, and Air China reported substantial losses in Q1, with losses of 747 million, 995 million, and 2.044 billion respectively [7]. - Despite a 26.4% increase in domestic travel and an 18.6% rise in spending, the tourism industry is struggling financially [8][9]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The tourism market is saturated, with an increase in A-level scenic spots and travel agencies, yet average income has dropped by nearly 40% [31]. - Online travel platforms like Ctrip and Tongcheng are thriving, with Ctrip reporting a net profit of approximately 4.3 billion in Q1, showcasing the "shovel effect" where service providers profit while actual tourism businesses struggle [28][30]. Group 4: Shifts in Consumer Behavior - The tourism industry is transitioning to a 2.0 era, where experiential value is prioritized over mere scarcity of resources [46][50]. - Successful attractions like Jiuhua Mountain and Disney have capitalized on immersive experiences, contrasting with traditional scenic spots that fail to adapt [39][41]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Many tourism platforms are likely to face severe financial difficulties or bankruptcy if they cannot adapt to the changing market dynamics and consumer preferences [55][56]. - The current environment suggests a need for a significant restructuring within the tourism sector to eliminate ineffective players and allow successful entities to thrive [58][59].

Group 1 - The tourism and hotel sector experienced a significant rally, with Tianmu Lake (603136) hitting the daily limit up [1] - Nanjing Commercial Travel (600250) saw an increase of over 6% [1] - Other notable gainers included Junting Hotel (301073), Huangshan Tourism (600054), and Qujiang Cultural Tourism (600706), which had prominent increases [1]