北京人力（600861）：利润率稳定，业绩承诺有望实现

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown stable profit margins and is expected to meet its performance commitments. The revenue for Q3 2025 was 11.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 194 million yuan, down 6.6% year-on-year. However, the net profit excluding non-recurring items increased by 10.3% year-on-year [8] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2025 was 5.7%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the operating profit margin remained stable at 2.9%. The net profit margin was 1.7%, down 0.1 percentage points year-on-year. Cost reduction and efficiency improvement measures have led to a slight decrease in management and sales expenses, maintaining stable profitability [8] - The company is deepening its joint venture cooperation with the DeKe Group, which will support Chinese enterprises in expanding globally by providing human resource services and consulting [8] - The company is a leader in China's human resource service industry, with significant scale advantages and rich customer resources. The partnership with DeKe has established a good reputation in the flexible employment sector. The profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised upward due to better-than-expected cost reduction and efficiency improvements, with net profits projected at 1.16 billion, 1.03 billion, and 1.10 billion yuan respectively [8] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 38.31 billion yuan in 2023 to 50.64 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 4.67% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 547.98 million yuan in 2023 to 1.10 billion yuan in 2027, with a peak growth rate of 46.67% in 2025 [1] - The latest diluted earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to rise from 0.97 yuan in 2023 to 1.94 yuan in 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [1]