菜百股份(605599):Q3业绩增势良好,渠道布局稳步推进

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [3][7]. Core Views - The company demonstrated solid performance in Q3 2025, with revenue increasing by 19.93% year-on-year and net profit attributable to shareholders rising by 21.89%. The gross margin improved quarter-on-quarter [7]. - The company is steadily expanding its channel layout, adding 3 new stores during the quarter, bringing the total to 106 stores by the end of Q3 [7]. - The report forecasts net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 823 million, 942 million, and 1.066 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 14%, 14%, and 13% [2][7]. Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 5.224 billion yuan and a net profit of 188 million yuan, with a significant increase in cash flow from operating activities, which rose by 96.31% year-on-year [7]. - The gross margin for Q3 was 9.15%, showing a quarter-on-quarter improvement, while the net profit margin for Q3 was 3.67% [7]. - The company’s total revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 20.472 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 33.41% [7]. Store Expansion - The company opened 5 new direct-operated stores in Q3, with a net increase of 3 stores after closing 2 [7]. - The company plans to open 2 additional reserve stores in Shaanxi province in Q4 2025 [7]. Profitability and Valuation - The report projects a PE ratio of 13.5X for 2025 and 11.8X for 2026, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [7]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) stands at 19.5%, reflecting strong profitability [3].