水星家纺（603365）：25Q3业绩超预期，大单品战略成效显著

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy rating for the company [4][7]. Core Insights - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue growth of 20.19% year-on-year, reaching 1.054 billion yuan, with a net profit increase of 43.18% to 91 million yuan, and a non-recurring net profit growth of 53.69% to 81 million yuan [2][3]. - The company has introduced a mid-term dividend plan, proposing a cash dividend of 0.2 yuan per share, which accounts for 22.3% of the net profit attributable to the parent company for the first three quarters [2]. - The implementation of a major product strategy has significantly improved gross margins, with Q3 gross margin rising by 4.24 percentage points to 44.74% [3][7]. - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 416 million yuan, 479 million yuan, and 553 million yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13%, 15%, and 15% respectively [7][9]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a revenue increase of 10.91% to 2.976 billion yuan, with a net profit growth of 10.74% to 232 million yuan [2]. - The operating cash flow for Q3 2025 was 74 million yuan, showing a positive turnaround year-on-year, with inventory turnover days reduced by 11 days to 175 days [7]. - The company’s total market capitalization is approximately 5 billion yuan, with a current share price of 18.98 yuan [4][7]. Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are set at 4.775 billion yuan, 5.484 billion yuan, and 6.307 billion yuan, with expected growth rates of 14%, 15%, and 15% respectively [9][16]. - The report highlights the successful launch of key products, such as ergonomic pillows and ice cream quilts, which are expected to drive future growth [7].