周大生（002867）：产品及渠道结构优化助推利润增势向好

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 18.20 [7][5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 67.72 billion for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 37.3%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 8.82 billion, an increase of 3.1% year-on-year [1]. - The decline in revenue is attributed to high gold prices and weak consumer demand, particularly affecting franchise channel revenues, while net profit increased due to a higher proportion of high-margin products and channels [1]. - The company is focusing on quality development, implementing a multi-brand strategy, enhancing product research and development, and optimizing product structure, with "self-indulgence" and "light jewelry" products emerging as structural highlights [1]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - In Q3 2025, the company generated revenue of RMB 21.75 billion, down 16.7% year-on-year, while net profit reached RMB 2.88 billion, up 13.6% year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 28.5%, an increase of 1.0 percentage points year-on-year, benefiting from product structure optimization and gold price increases [3]. - The company’s franchise business revenue in Q3 2025 was RMB 9.2 billion, down 46.8% year-on-year, while online self-operated business revenue increased by 15.7% to RMB 4.52 billion [2]. Product and Channel Strategy - The company is enhancing its self-operated and e-commerce channels to counteract the weak demand for traditional gold products, with a focus on lightweight and cost-effective products [2]. - The company closed 43 stores in Q3 2025, with a net reduction of 560 stores compared to the same period last year, indicating a strategic shift towards optimizing channel quality [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted upwards by 5% for 2025 and 2026, and by 7% for 2027, with projected net profits of RMB 11.6 billion, RMB 12.8 billion, and RMB 14.8 billion respectively [5]. - The target price is based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 17 times for 2025, reflecting the company's position as a leading brand in the gold jewelry industry [5].