CBMT(SH:603099) Guoxin Securities·2025-10-29 05:10Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4]. Core Views - The company experienced a revenue growth of 17.8% year-on-year in Q3, with a net profit growth of 19.4%. The peak season in Q3 helped to compensate for the weaker performance in the first half of the year [1][8]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the ice and snow tourism market, supported by favorable policies and improved transportation infrastructure, which is expected to enhance visitor flow during the winter season [3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 401 million yuan, an increase of 17.78%, and a net profit of 151 million yuan, up 19.43%. For the first three quarters of 2025, revenue was 636 million yuan, a growth of 6.99%, while net profit was 149 million yuan, a slight increase of 1.05% [1][8]. - The total visitor count for the first three quarters reached 3.06 million, representing a 10.4% increase, with Q3 alone seeing 2.02 million visitors, a 20% increase [12][1]. Cost and Margin Analysis - The gross margin for Q3 was 57.5%, slightly down by 0.4 percentage points, attributed to the impact of per capita spending and capacity expansion [2][12]. - The company maintained tight control over expenses, with management, sales, and financial expense ratios at 4.4%, 2.2%, and 0.3%, respectively [2][12]. Future Outlook - The company aims to create a dual peak season strategy, leveraging policy support and transportation improvements to stimulate demand in the ice and snow tourism sector. The government has set ambitious targets for the ice and snow economy, projecting a total scale of 1.2 trillion yuan by 2027 and 1.5 trillion yuan by 2030 [3][4]. - The opening of the Shenyang-White Mountain high-speed railway is expected to significantly reduce travel time and increase visitor numbers, with projections of over 10 million passengers annually [3][4]. Earnings Forecast - The company has revised its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 160 million, 190 million, and 220 million yuan, respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment from previous estimates [4][5]. - The latest price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are projected at 87, 72, and 61 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4][5].