HAI TIAN(SH:603288) HTSC·2025-10-29 05:16Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 45.85, reflecting a valuation premium due to its leading market position [6][4]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 216.3 billion and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 53.2 billion for the first three quarters of 2025, representing year-on-year growth of 6.0% and 10.5% respectively. The third quarter saw a revenue of RMB 64.0 billion, with a net profit of RMB 14.1 billion, showing a slower growth rate compared to the first half of the year [1][4]. - The company is expected to strengthen its domestic market position while accelerating its overseas expansion, despite facing challenges from weak domestic demand and intense competition [1][4]. Revenue and Profitability - For the first three quarters of 2025, the gross margin was 40.0%, an increase of 3.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin for the same period was 24.6%, up by 1.0 percentage points [3][4]. - The company’s sales and management expense ratios increased due to promotional activities and the implementation of an employee stock ownership plan, which impacted profitability [3][4]. Product Performance - Revenue from key products such as soy sauce, oyster sauce, and seasoning sauces showed steady growth, with year-on-year increases of 7.9%, 5.9%, and 9.6% respectively for the first three quarters of 2025 [2][4]. - Online sales channels demonstrated significant growth, with a 19.8% increase in revenue in the third quarter compared to the previous year, driven by new product introductions [2][4]. Financial Forecasts - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be RMB 1.17, RMB 1.31, and RMB 1.41 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9% [4][10]. - The report anticipates a decline in industry competition and a gradual recovery in restaurant demand, which may affect the company’s inventory levels and sales dynamics [4][15].