联邦制药（03933）：BD首付贡献业绩，期待传统业务回暖

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [2][10]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 7.52 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.8%. EBITDA increased by 23.3% to 2.75 billion yuan, and net profit attributable to shareholders rose by 27.0% to 1.89 billion yuan [4][5]. Company Overview - Latest closing price: HKD 13.14 - Total shares: 1.973 billion - Total market capitalization: HKD 29.023 billion - 52-week high/low: HKD 17.774 / HKD 9.309 - Debt-to-asset ratio: 46.96% - Price-to-earnings ratio: 8.3 [3]. Financial Performance - The intermediate products segment saw a revenue decline of 23.1% to 1.01 billion yuan, with a profit margin of 27.5%, down by 7.2 percentage points. The active pharmaceutical ingredients segment's revenue fell by 27.0% to 2.53 billion yuan, with a profit margin of 27.5%, down by 4.9 percentage points. The formulation segment's revenue increased by 6.1% to 2.54 billion yuan, with a profit margin of 6.1%, down by 4.0 percentage points. Licensing income was 1.43 billion yuan, primarily from the UBT251 licensing fee [5][6]. - The insulin formulation business showed significant growth, with revenue reaching 960 million yuan, a 74.5% increase. The second-generation insulin revenue was 460 million yuan, up 110.2%, while the revenue from glargine insulin and aspart insulin increased by 33.7% and 74.0%, respectively [6]. Research and Development - The company invested 550 million yuan in R&D, a 14.9% increase. The GLP-1/GIP/GCG triple-target new drug UBT251 has been licensed to Novo Nordisk, with ongoing clinical trials for weight loss and diabetes indications. The company expects to enter a harvest period starting in 2026, with six new products or indications anticipated for approval in 2026 and 2027 [7][8]. Financial Forecast - Projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 13.42 billion yuan, 12.65 billion yuan, and 13.84 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -2.5%, -5.7%, and 9.4%. Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted at 2.36 billion yuan, 2.02 billion yuan, and 2.41 billion yuan for the same years, with corresponding growth rates of -11.4%, -14.2%, and 19.4% [12][8].