CBMT(SH:603099) Guoxin Securities·2025-10-29 06:25Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6] Core Views - The company experienced a revenue growth of 17.8% year-on-year in Q3, with a net profit growth of 19.4%. The peak season in Q3 helped to compensate for the weaker performance in the first half of the year [1][8] - The company is positioned to benefit from the ice and snow tourism market, supported by favorable policies and improved transportation infrastructure, which is expected to enhance visitor flow during the winter season [3][4] Financial Performance Summary - Q3 revenue reached 401 million yuan, up 17.78% year-on-year, while net profit was 151 million yuan, an increase of 19.43%. For the first three quarters of 2025, revenue was 636 million yuan, a growth of 6.99%, and net profit was 149 million yuan, up 1.05% [1][8] - The company recorded a gross margin of 57.5% in Q3, slightly down by 0.4 percentage points, attributed to consumer spending fluctuations and capacity expansion [2][12] - Visitor numbers for the first three quarters reached 3.06 million, a 10.4% increase, with Q3 alone seeing 2.02 million visitors, a 20% rise [12] Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 160 million, 190 million, and 220 million yuan respectively, reflecting a more cautious outlook. The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 87, 72, and 61 for the respective years [4][14] - The government has set ambitious targets for the ice and snow economy, aiming for a total scale of 1.2 trillion yuan by 2027 and 1.5 trillion yuan by 2030, which is expected to stimulate demand in the tourism sector [3][13]