CABIO(SH:688089) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-10-29 06:46Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown resilience in its core business despite challenges such as international shipping slowdowns and factory maintenance affecting order releases. The domestic market remains strong, and there is potential for international market share growth [4][5][7] - The company has terminated its acquisition of Ouyisheng Biotechnology, leading to a downward adjustment in net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [4] - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing new national standards and the potential increase in ARA and DHA content in infant formula due to upcoming upgrades [7] Financial Performance Summary - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 428 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.56%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 129 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 54.18% [4] - In Q3 2025, revenue was 121 million yuan, a decrease of 3.97% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 21 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 33.7% [4] - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 177 million, 211 million, and 252 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS estimates of 1.05, 1.25, and 1.50 yuan [4] Margin and Cost Analysis - The gross margin for Q3 2025 improved by 11.18 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to the scale effect from increased production of ARA and DHA, leading to reduced fermentation costs [6] - The net profit margin for Q3 2025 increased by 4.97 percentage points year-on-year [6] Market Opportunities - The company is positioned to benefit from the trend of using algal oil DHA as a substitute for fish oil DHA, which is expected to open up new growth avenues [7] - The international market share is anticipated to grow, particularly with major clients like Nestlé and Danone, and the company aims to integrate into other leading customer supply chains [7] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 638 million yuan in 2025, 757 million yuan in 2026, and 885 million yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 14.8%, 18.8%, and 16.9% respectively [8] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 177 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 42.2% [8] - The company’s P/E ratios are projected to decrease from 22.9 in 2025 to 16.1 in 2027, indicating improving valuation metrics [8]