洪城环境（600461）：折旧年限延长释放盈利，自由现金流回正

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hongcheng Environment (600461) [1] Core Views - The extension of depreciation periods has released profits, leading to a positive free cash flow [8] - The company achieved a revenue of 5.426 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 3.85%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 1.18% to 933 million yuan [8] - The report highlights that the company's operational performance remains stable after excluding depreciation impacts and credit impairment increments [8] Financial Summary - Revenue Forecast: - 2023A: 8,048 million yuan - 2024A: 8,227 million yuan - 2025E: 7,825 million yuan (down 4.89% YoY) - 2026E: 8,005 million yuan - 2027E: 8,191 million yuan [1] - Net Profit Forecast: - 2023A: 1,083 million yuan - 2024A: 1,190 million yuan - 2025E: 1,251 million yuan (up 5.14% YoY) - 2026E: 1,307 million yuan - 2027E: 1,363 million yuan [1] - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - 2023A: 0.84 yuan - 2024A: 0.93 yuan - 2025E: 0.97 yuan - 2026E: 1.02 yuan - 2027E: 1.06 yuan [1] - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: - 2023A: 10.91 - 2024A: 9.93 - 2025E: 9.44 - 2026E: 9.04 - 2027E: 8.67 [1] - The company expects a dividend payout ratio of no less than 50% from 2024 to 2026, estimating a dividend yield of 5.3% for 2025 [8]